铅周报：铅价技术性突破，谨防高位回落风险-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation provides positive support for the lead price. Meanwhile, the concentrated maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelters eases the supply - demand pressure, and capital inflows drive the lead price up. However, demand is difficult to improve significantly. With the resumption of production of some primary lead smelters under maintenance and the possible marginal increase in supply after the secondary lead profit is restored due to the rise in lead price, it is expected that the upward momentum of lead price is limited. Investors should be cautious about chasing the rise and beware of the risk of a high - level decline [4][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From September 5th to 12th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,988 dollars/ton to 2,019 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.50 to 8.44, a decrease of 0.06; the SHFE inventory decreased from 66,834 tons to 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 248,200 tons to 229,575 tons, a decrease of 18,625 tons; the social inventory increased from 3.59 million tons to 3.94 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 125 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the SHFE lead main contract PB2510 fluctuated narrowly in the first half - week and soared on Friday afternoon, closing at 17,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.83%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 2,019 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.56%. In the spot market, on September 12th, the lead prices in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2510 contract. Downstream enterprises mainly made long - term order purchases and were hesitant about high - priced goods [6] - As of September 12th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,625 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, a decrease of 273 tons from the previous week. As of September 11th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons from Monday and an increase of 900 tons from last Thursday. With the approaching of the current - month contract delivery, the inventory may increase again [7] 3.3 Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton from the previous week; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [9] 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary - secondary lead price difference, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][14][18][22]