降息条件充分，铜价震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were that the overall CPI in the US in August was moderately controllable with limited month - on - month increase, and the employment market remained weak. The market actively bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. Trump's arrangement of his White House economic advisor as a director might further interfere with the Fed's policy independence, and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, major mines maintained supply disruptions, there were expectations of refined copper production cuts in China, emerging industries had rapid consumption growth, and there was a risk of further decline in social inventories. The B - structure of the near - month contract slightly narrowed [2]. - Weak employment data increased the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates this month, and the low - inflation environment provided a favorable basis for a full - scale shift to a loose policy path. Trump's appointment of new directors might speed up his intervention in the future federal funds rate. In addition, the month - on - month decline of CPI in August but the narrowing of PPI decline, and the stable export growth. Driven by the expectation of growth - stabilizing policies, the sentiment in the domestic capital market was high. Fundamentally, the interference rate at overseas mine ends continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September and October, the tight - balance structure in China would intensify, and it was expected that copper prices would enter a stage of fluctuating upward in the short term [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price changes: From September 5th to September 12th, LME copper rose from $9,865.00/ton to $10,064.50/ton, a 2.02% increase; COMEX copper rose from $454.35 cents/pound to $464.8 cents/pound, a 2.30% increase; SHFE copper rose from 80,140 yuan/ton to 81,060 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; international copper rose from 71,130 yuan/ton to 72,030 yuan/ton, a 1.27% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.12 to 8.05. The LME spot premium dropped from -$68.04/ton to -$73.42/ton, a 7.91% decline, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 165 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory changes: As of September 12th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 635,473 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons (-2.53%), COMEX inventory increased by 5,142 short tons (1.68%), SHFE inventory increased by 12,203 tons (14.91%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,200 tons (-3.99%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper price trend: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The reasons were related to the US economic data and policy expectations, as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand. The total global inventory continued to rise, and the US dollar index's limited rebound led to the Shanghai - London ratio remaining at a relatively low level [8]. - Macroeconomic situation: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a month - on - month increase of 27,000, far exceeding the expected median of 235,000. The actual number of new non - farm jobs in the past 12 months ending in March was 911,000 less than previously reported. The 8 - month CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% increase. The market continued to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged, and the euro - zone inflation was under control. In China, the CPI in August was -0.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy was +0.9% year - on - year. The PPI decline narrowed [9]. - Supply and demand situation: Globally, the mine - end supply remained tight and was transmitted to the smelting end. In China, refined copper production in September might continue to decline. The supply of scrap copper tightened, and the profitability of small and medium - sized smelters was limited. On the demand side, power grid investment projects would speed up, the copper cable industry's operating rate was expected to return to about 80%. The demand for new energy vehicles would enter the peak season, and social inventories might decline further. The tight - balance structure would intensify [10]. 3. Industry News - Import data: In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.93 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative imports from January to August reached 2,007.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 42.5 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 353.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year, while the production of Collahuasi decreased by 27.2% year - on - year [12]. - Panama copper mine: The Panamanian government plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals about the possible restart of the Panama copper mine at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit will be carried out first, which is expected to take 3 - 4 months. Before the shutdown, the mine's annual copper production was 35 tons, and its contribution to Panama's GDP was about 5%. The shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $1.7 billion [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: An accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to 7 workers being trapped underground, and the mine's operation was suspended. The company's stock price fell by 5.81% on Tuesday. The Grasberg mining area has an annual copper production capacity of about 771,100 tons and a gold production capacity of 1.4 million ounces [14][15]. 4. Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the trends of copper prices (including SHFE copper, LME copper, COMEX copper), inventories (LME, COMEX, SHFE, Shanghai bonded area), spreads (LME spot premium, Shanghai spot premium, etc.), ratios (Shanghai - London ratio), and other indicators, as well as the net long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net position change of LME copper investment funds [17][21][40].