国信期货宏观周报：中美开展新一轮经贸会谈，海外美联储降息即将落地-20250915

Report Title - "Sino-US to Conduct a New Round of Economic and Trade Talks, Overseas Fed Rate Cut to Be Implemented Soon - Guoxin Futures Macro Weekly Report" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Sino-US will hold a new round of economic and trade talks, with non-tariff economic and trade issues likely to be important topics, and US unilateral tariff measures remaining a key point. Overall, there is cautious optimism about this economic and trade talk. The US Department of Commerce's abuse of export controls may be an attempt to gain more leverage in the talks. China's Ministry of Commerce's anti-discrimination and anti-dumping investigations against the US will benefit domestic substitution industries for analog chips. Domestically, the economy showed positive signs in August, with exports growing slightly, price levels improving, and money supply and social financing also showing positive changes. Overseas, the US inflation is relatively moderate, and the market highly anticipates a Fed rate cut. Other events such as political changes in France and Japan also have an impact on the market [8][9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Review (0908 - 0914) - Domestic Data: In August 2025, China's total import and export value was $541.29 billion, with exports at $321.81 billion (up 4.4% year-on-year), imports at $219.48 billion (up 1.3% year-on-year), and a trade surplus of $102.33 billion. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year with a narrowing decline. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 6.0% year-on-year, and M0 by 11.7% year-on-year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the increment in August was 2.57 trillion yuan. On September 15, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [5][6] - Overseas Data: In the US, the CPI in August was 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year. The European Central Bank maintained its three major policy interest rates unchanged. As of September 12, the market expected a 93.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut on September 18, and the cumulative rate cut for the year might be 75 basis points [6][9] - Political Events: On September 9, French Prime Minister Belleru submitted his resignation. On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his resignation [9][10] - Economic and Trade Talks: From September 14 - 17, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [7] - Trade Frictions: The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List," and China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations against the US [7][8] Part 2: High - Frequency Data - Domestic Commodities: From 0908 - 0912, the wholesale price of pork was stable at 19.88 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of vegetables decreased slightly to 5.07 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price of fruits decreased slightly to 6.75 yuan/kg [14] - International Commodities: From 0908 - 0912, the CRB Spot Composite Index was stable at 551.72 [17] - Money Market: From 0908 - 0912, DR007 and R007 both increased slightly to 1.4575% and 1.4651% respectively [20] - Foreign Trade Market: From 0908 - 0912, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 2126 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to decline to 1125.30 [24][29] Part 3: Major Asset Classes (0908 - 0912) - Stock Market: A - share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.10% [33] - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The closing prices of treasury bond futures varied, with the 2 - year treasury bond futures down 0.04%, the 5 - year up 0.07%, and the 30 - year down 1.08% [33] - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar index fell 0.13%, the on - shore US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.22%, and the euro against the Chinese yuan fell 0.12% [35] - Commodity Market: Crude oil fell 1.39%, Shanghai gold rose 2.28%, live pigs fell 0.53%, Shanghai copper rose 1.15%, and rebar fell 0.51% [35] Part 4: Weekly Focus (0915 - 0921) - September 14 - 17: Sino - US economic and trade talks in Madrid, Spain - September 15: China's August industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data - September 16: US August retail sales month - on - month - September 17: Bank of Canada interest rate decision - September 18: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Bank of England interest rate decision - September 19: Bank of Japan interest rate decision [38]