钢材周报：供需驱动不强，钢价震荡为主-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.