豆粕周报：USDA报告符合预期，连粕震荡运行-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 18.5 to close at 1045.25 cents per bushel, a 1.80% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3079 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2980 yuan per ton, a 0.68% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 19 to 2531 yuan per ton, a 0.75% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase [4][7]. - US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, the crop good - to - excellent rate continued to decline, and the export sales progress was generally slow. The report slightly lowered the yield per unit and export demand, which was in line with market expectations. Soybean meal fluctuated in a narrow range. The domestic soybean arrival volume was sufficient, the operating rate was at a high level, soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory, the basis was weak, and at the same time, Brazil's export supply capacity weakened, the premium was strong, and the import cost was supported [4][7]. - The September USDA report was generally in line with expectations. The yield per unit was slightly lowered to 53.5 bushels per acre, the export demand was lowered to 1.685 billion bushels, and the inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels, with a slightly bearish impact. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, and the soil moisture in the eastern region continued to decline. There was still an expectation of a yield per unit reduction in the next report. The oil mills' operating rate remained high, soybean meal inventory increased, and the basis was under pressure. Feed enterprises' stocking demand before the double festivals would increase, and the inventory days increased. The procurement progress for the November - January shipping schedule was slow, and the premium of Brazil's old - crop soybeans was strong, providing support for the import cost. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 9/12 | 9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1045.25 | 1026.75 | 18.50 | 1.80% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 490.00 | 489.00 | 1.00 | 0.20% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 466.00 | 467.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.21% | US dollars per ton | | Brazil Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 83.52 | - 50.23 | - 33.29 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3079.00 | 3067.00 | 12.00 | 0.39% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2531.00 | 2550.00 | - 19.00 | - 0.75% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 548.00 | 517.00 | 31.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2960.00 | 20.00 | 0.68% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 99.00 | - 107.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - USDA Report: The September USDA report was neutral. The planting area was slightly increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was slightly reduced to 53.5 bushels per acre, the crushing demand was increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand was reduced by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 300 million bushels [8]. - US Crop Growth: As of the week of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, 65% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, and 97% in the same period last year and the five - year average. The leaf - falling rate was 21%, 11% in the previous week, 23% in the same period last year, and 22% in the five - year average. As of the week of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, 16% in the previous week, and 26% in the same period last year [9]. - US Soybean Export: As of the week of September 4, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 9.354 million tons, compared with 14.25 million tons in the same period last year. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans [9]. - US Soybean Crushing: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the gross crushing profit of US soybeans was 3.08 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.71 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 295.69 US dollars per short ton, compared with 296.88 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.73 cents per pound, compared with 53.25 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.01 US dollars per bushel, compared with 10.47 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [9]. - NOPA Forecast: The NOPA monthly report forecast showed that member enterprises were expected to crush 182.857 million bushels of soybeans in August. If the forecast was accurate, the August crushing volume would decrease by 6.6% compared with 195.699 million bushels in July but increase by 15.7% compared with 158.008 million bushels in August 2024 [10]. - Brazilian Situation: Brazilian farmers had started planting 2025/26 season soybeans, with a sowing rate of 0.02% as of last Thursday. Brazil's soybean export volume in September was expected to rise to 7.43 million tons, compared with an expected 6.75 million tons in the previous week [10]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.317 million tons, an increase of 348,500 tons from the previous week and 425,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.1362 million tons, an increase of 57,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 212,600 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 6.6278 million tons, an increase of 2.2196 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,200 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.661 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and 1.1845 million tons from the same period last year [10]. - Domestic Trading and Consumption: As of the week of September 12, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 176,160 tons, including 78,360 tons of spot trading and 97,800 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 101,900 tons in the previous week; the daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 197,560 tons, compared with 191,540 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, compared with 2.3039 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.22 days, compared with 8.8 days in the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil: The Safras & Mercado institution predicted that Brazil's total soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 180.92 million tons, a 5.3% increase from 171.84 million tons last year. The new - season soybean planting area was expected to be about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous season, and the average yield per unit was expected to increase from 3,625 kg per hectare to 3,771 kg per hectare. Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 was expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 105 million tons in 2025. The 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast was raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and the 2025 crushing volume forecast was raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons. The Secex institution reported that Brazil exported 1,005,957.55 tons of soybeans in the first week of September, with a daily average export volume of 201,191.51 tons, a 31% decrease from the daily average export volume of 290,783.94 tons in September last year. CONAB estimated that Brazil's soybean output in the 2024/25 season would reach 171.4723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1889 million tons (13.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.8153 million tons (1.1%); the sowing area would reach 47.3506 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.2547 million hectares (2.7%) and a month - on - month decrease of 286,600 hectares (0.6%). The IBGE estimated that Brazil's soybean planting area in 2025 would be 47.666743 million hectares, a 3.5% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year; the soybean output was estimated to be 165.892097 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 14.5% increase from last year [12][14]. - Ukraine: Due to customs document confusion after a 10% tariff was imposed on rapeseed and soybean exports, Ukraine's rapeseed exports might be suspended for at least a week. The agricultural lobbying group UCAB asked farmers not to export rapeseed until the problem was completely resolved [13]. - Canada: As of July 31, 2025, Canada's total rapeseed inventory decreased by 50.5% year - on - year to 1.5973 million tons, the commercial inventory decreased by 37.9% to 1.2192 million tons, and the farm inventory decreased by 70.1% to 378,100 tons. With the continued expansion of the processing industry, the industrial consumption mainly for crushing increased by 3.4% to a record 11.412 million tons. Due to strong international demand, rapeseed exports increased by 39.7% to 9.3308 million tons as of July 31 [13]. - Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina predicted that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season would decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with last year because farmers chose to plant other crops such as corn and sunflowers. Soybean sowing was expected to start at the end of September or early October. As of the week of September 3, Argentine farmers sold 605,000 tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 31.2916 million tons. As of September 3, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 8.475 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [13][14].