新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-15）-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300: Upward [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Weak oscillation [5] - Rapeseed meal: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean No. 2: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean No. 1: Weak oscillation [5] - Live pigs: Strong oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillation [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The fundamentals of the black industry chain are facing different situations, with iron ore supported by short-term sentiment and coal and coke weakening; the steel market is under pressure from supply and demand [2] - The financial market shows a rebound trend, with the stock index expected to rise and the bond market relatively stable; gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as interest rates and geopolitics [4] - The forestry and pulp and paper industries are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with logs oscillating and pulp and paper products showing different trends [5] - The agricultural products market is complex, with the prices of grains and oilseeds affected by factors such as production, trade, and demand, and the live pig market showing a strong oscillation [5][6] - The soft commodities and polyester industries are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and inventory, with rubber oscillating and polyester products showing different trends [8] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: After the resumption of steel mills, the molten iron output rebounded significantly to 2.4 million tons. The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Pay attention to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - Coking coal and coke: The second round of price cuts for coke has started, and the fundamentals are weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short-term sentiment in the black sector has cooled down [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: There is a lack of macro drivers, the supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. The overall demand is difficult to show an inverse-seasonal performance, and the 2601 contract is oscillating weakly [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control risk preferences and hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond decreased, and the market interest rate fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the short-term is affected by factors such as interest rates and geopolitics. The prices of gold and silver are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate [4] Forestry and Pulp and Paper - Logs: The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly, showing a situation of off-season in the peak season. The supply pressure is not large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak, and it is expected to consolidate weakly [5] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, but the demand is not good, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [5] Agricultural Products - Grains and oilseeds: The supply pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is significant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of rapeseed oil is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the demand from slaughtering enterprises improved. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but the price of standard pigs may be under pressure [6] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate widely [8] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX and PTA follow the cost fluctuations, MEG may accumulate inventory slightly, and the supply and demand of PR and PF are in a game state. It is recommended to wait and see [8]