申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is consolidating at a high level while silver is taking over and strengthening [4]. - The inflation data announced last week was generally in line with expectations, with the CPI rising and the PPI falling, which strengthened the expectation of a September interest - rate cut [4]. - Multiple data in September showed a weak employment market in the US, further confirming the prospect of a September interest - rate cut and pushing up the price of gold [4]. - There is speculation about a 50 - bp interest - rate cut, but it is more likely to have multiple interest - rate cuts within the year, with a neutral expectation of three cuts [4]. - The trade environment is deteriorating, and the long - term driver for gold remains clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold purchases [4]. - Gold and silver are likely to show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and there are concerns about Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Futures Market - Gold Futures: - For沪金2510, the current price is 834.00, up 3.22 (0.39%) from the previous close, with a position of 114,423 and a trading volume of 165,360 [2]. - For沪金2512, the current price is 836.00, up 3.16 (0.38%) from the previous close, with a position of 210,404 and a trading volume of 107,160 [2]. - Silver Futures: - For沪银2510, the current price is 10,051.00, up 253.00 (2.58%) from the previous close, with a position of 203,343 and a trading volume of 301,985 [2]. - For沪银2512, the current price is 10,075.00, up 254.00 (2.59%) from the previous close, with a position of 353,668 and a trading volume of 196,315 [2]. Spot Market - Gold Spot: - Shanghai Gold T + D's previous - day closing price was 826.09, down 3.63 (- 0.44%) [2]. - London Gold's previous - day closing price was 831.58, down 1.70 (- 0.20%) [2]. - Silver Spot: - Shanghai Silver T + D's previous - day closing price was 9,772.00, down 12.00 (- 0.12%) [2]. - London Silver's previous - day closing price was 41.50, up 0.36 (0.87%) [2]. Inventory - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 50,151 kg, an increase of 4,200 kg [2]. - The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 1,240,187 kg, a decrease of 11,983 kg [2]. - COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increases by 1,384,668 [2]. Related Market Data - The US dollar index is 97.5299, down 0.32% [2]. - The S&P index is 6,587.47, up 0.85% [2]. - The US Treasury yield is 4.01, down 0.74% [2]. - Brent crude oil is 66.31, up 0.01% [2]. - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1129, down 0.10% [2]. Derivatives - The position of spdr gold ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - The position of SLV silver ETF is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1 ton [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481 [2]. - CFTC speculators' net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2]. Macro News - There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a very slim chance of a 50 - bp cut [3]. - Rick Rieder of BlackRock is among the top candidates for the next Fed chair and has advocated a 50 - bp interest - rate cut [3]. - The US's 15% "reciprocal tariff" on most EU goods has impacted Italy's pharmaceutical export industry, with an estimated cost increase of up to 19.5 billion euros [3].