Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Guinea rainy season has affected bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in bauxite shipments and uncertainties in the复产 of a large mine, supporting ore prices. The alumina production is in a high - stable state, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing steadily. Domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the inventory inflection point is basically determined. The overall idea is to go long on dips, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Fundamental Analysis: Guinea bauxite prices are stable at $75 per dry ton. Alumina operating capacity increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, and national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.409 million tons. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is recovering [4]. - Strategy Recommendations: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or go long on AD and short on AL [5]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, inflation expectations, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. Guinea bauxite prices are stable, and the bauxite shipping volume is decreasing. From mid - to late September, major mining enterprises and alumina plants will start negotiations on the fourth - quarter long - term contract prices [11]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina construction capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 97.55 million tons (an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating rate was 85.1%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,047.5 yuan per ton (a decrease of 53.5 yuan per ton week - on - week). The national alumina inventory was 3.68 million tons (an increase of 71,000 tons week - on - week). Some new production capacities are entering the stable production state, and some roasting furnaces will be under maintenance, but it will not affect the medium - term output [15]. 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume, but no specific analysis is provided [17][18][19] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.409 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou Anshun and the commissioning of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin's replacement capacity basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [22]. 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on electrolytic aluminum processing fees, aluminum prices, power coal prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [26] 08. Inventory - The report presents historical data on the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [28][29][30] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3% week - on - week. Since September, downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, but industry operations are still restricted by factors such as insufficient raw material supply and policy uncertainties [33]. 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum alloy prices, price differences, and import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [36][39][40] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 62.1% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises rose by 1% to 54%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises remained stable at 68.6%, with differentiated product performance [46]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 65.2% week - on - week, supported by existing orders. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1% to 57.6%, with different production performances between large and small enterprises [50].
铝产业链周报-20250915
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-15 02:58