国泰君安期货所长早读-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading outlooks for various commodities, such as "Breakout upward" for aluminum, "Weak operation" for alumina, and "Range - bound oscillation" for zinc [13]. 2. Core Views - Macroeconomic Data: China's August social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a 590 - billion - yuan increase in RMB loans. The M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low, indicating improved capital activation. Corporate financing demand showed marginal improvement, while consumer spending willingness remained weak [7]. - MEG: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [8][9]. - Lead: Short - term supply of lead concentrate is tight, and demand has marginally improved, supporting prices. Existing long positions can be held, and new long positions should wait for better entry points [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to see a downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver is predicted to break out upward. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is also 0 [13][17][21]. Base Metals - Copper: Driven by macro sentiment, copper prices are rising. Trend strength is 1 [13][23][25]. - Zinc: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][26][27]. - Lead: Demand has marginally improved, leading to price increases. Trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - Tin: Tin is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][32][35]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is expected to break out upward, alumina to operate weakly, and casting aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum. Trend strengths for all are 0 [13][36][38]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to news risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][39][45]. Energy and Chemicals - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [13][8][9]. - LPG: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and strong - biased oscillation [13][16]. - Propylene: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short term [13][16]. Other Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength is - 1 [13][46][48]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For polysilicon, market information changes should be monitored. Trend strengths are - 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon [13][49][51]. - Iron Ore: It is in an oscillating and repeated pattern. Trend strength is 0 [13][53][54]. - Steel Products: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, demand needs verification, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][57][59]. - Ferroalloys: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][60][62]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][63][65]. - Logs: They are in an oscillating and repeated pattern [13][66].