Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating, and the overseas interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Last week, the aluminum price rose strongly. Due to the surge in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and moderate inflation, the Fed may resume interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly. The alumina spot price moves narrowly, and the electrolytic aluminum's immediate cost changes little [2] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased by 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in mid - September needs further observation [2] - With the macro interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled and the transition to the peak season, macro and fundamental factors are favorable, and the price is expected to be supported and run at a high level recently. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250915
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-09-15 02:57