华龙期货螺纹周报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2601 contract rose by 0.03%. Although the recent fundamentals of rebar are relatively weak, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may improve, and the steel price may still have the possibility of volatile rebound in the future [4][34] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: Not detailed in the report - Spot Price: As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged [13] - Basis and Spread: Not detailed in the report Important Market Information - On September 10, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing China's opposition to the US's negative actions. - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year (previous value 0%), and was flat month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and turned flat from a 0.2% decline month - on - month. - In August 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 5.4516 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 8.5618 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [17] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a month - on - month increase of 3.43% and a year - on - year increase of 6.20%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1171 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1717 million tons. - According to My Steel Network data, last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0471 million tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1857 million tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.5724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0341 million tons; the total inventory was 15.1461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1391 million tons; the apparent demand was 8.4333 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.155 million tons. - Zhaogang Network data showed that as of the week of September 10, the national building materials output was 4.7872 million tons, a decrease of 0.0567 million tons from the previous week; the mill inventory was 4.4837 million tons, a decrease of 0.1639 million tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 5.8199 million tons, an increase of 0.0962 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory was 10.3036 million tons, a decrease of 0.0677 million tons from the previous week [31][32][33] Demand - side Situation - As of August 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.1, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the current value of the Lang Steel Iron and Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.8, unchanged month - on - month [23] Fundamental Analysis - The same as the supply - side situation, including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, hot metal output, rebar output, inventory, and apparent demand data [31][32] 后市展望 - Although the recent fundamentals of rebar are relatively weak, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period may improve, and the steel price may still have the possibility of volatile rebound in the future [34] Operation Strategy - Single - side: It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3,100 yuan/ton and try to go long with a light position. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Choose the opportunity to sell the deep out - of - the - money put option strategy for rb2601 [35]