五矿期货早报有色金属-20250915

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 15, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - Last week, the copper price strengthened. LME copper rose 2.02% to $10,064/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,810 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 12,000 tons, with SHFE inventory up 12,000 to 94,000 tons, LME inventory down 4,000 to 154,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 5,000 to 282,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 4,000 tons. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for SHFE copper is 79,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,800 - $10,300/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price continued to be strong. LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2,701/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,075 yuan/ton. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum ingots decreased by 5,500 tons to 462,000 tons. The aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20,900 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,660 - $2,730/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.85% to 17,043 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,000.5/ton. The lead concentrate TC declined again, the raw materials were in short supply. The production of primary and secondary lead increased year - on - year. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term [5] Group 5: Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.29% to 22,318 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,913/ton. The zinc concentrate TC showed differentiation. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased, and the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory decreased. The zinc price is expected to run strongly in the short term [6][7] Group 6: Tin - Last week, the tin price rebounded. The supply decreased significantly due to slow复产 in Myanmar and raw material shortages in domestic smelters. The demand improved marginally with the arrival of the traditional peak season. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Group 7: Nickel - The nickel ore price was stable. The nickel iron price was strong. The refined nickel price oscillated, with the inventory increasing. In the short term, the nickel price may decline, but in the long term, it has support. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [9][12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.29% last week. The lithium price was suppressed by pessimistic sentiment and loose expectations. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking, which may support the bottom price. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,900 - 73,300 yuan/ton [14] Group 9: Alumina - On September 12, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.05% to 2,915 yuan/ton. The import window opened. The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [16] Group 10: Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased. The raw material cost increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - As of Friday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.83% to 20,645 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term [21]