铜周报20250914：基本面支撑有限，宏观向上，沪铜偏强-20250915

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View The fundamentals provide limited support, while the macro - environment is positive, leading to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai Copper [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - Downstream purchasing sentiment is low, pressuring the copper spot premium/discount [10]. - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [11]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.45/ton week - on - week to - $41.3/ton, remaining at a low level [15]. - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.44 tons week - on - week to 69.27 tons [18]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [21]. - Affected by maintenance in September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by over 4% month - on - month and increase by over 11% year - on - year [23]. - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24]. - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory continued to decline week - on - week [26]. - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week due to high copper prices, cautious downstream purchasing, and weak consumption [30]. - From September 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 3% year - on - year [32]. - The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September will increase slightly month - on - month, but there is a divergence among leading enterprises [33]. - The planned output of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual output of the same period last year [35]. Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, and new loans were 590 billion yuan [39]. - The US core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [41]. - US inflation is basically in line with expectations, and the annual revision of non - farm payrolls is worse than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut [42].