玻璃：沙河改气扰动，继续逢低做多

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the traditional peak season, the sales situation in Hubei has improved and continued, and downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. The gas conversion event in Shahe at the end of September and early October continues to ferment, with positive expectations. Technically, the power of both long and short sides has weakened, and the market fluctuates between 1150 - 1200. Therefore, it is still recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, the glass futures fluctuated. The daily melting volume remained unchanged, and multiple production lines changed production. The national factory inventory decreased. Affected by the early - week futures price increase and gas conversion rumors in Shahe, middle - stream purchases increased. The overall shipment of factories in Central China was good, and some middlemen made appropriate purchases. The inventory in East and South China continued to decline, and the inventory pressure eased. The engineering orders of processing plants were average, while the home - decoration orders were good. The spot prices of soda ash and glass fluctuated slightly, and the profit improvement was not obvious. In terms of demand, the mid - and downstream carried out phased replenishment, the market trading sentiment warmed up, and some speculative demand drove a slight reduction in factory inventory. The production - sales ratio in some regions increased significantly. There is still pressure on the supply and inventory of soda ash, and the contradiction in soda ash is more prominent compared to glass. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the price difference between soda ash and glass [3] - Operation Strategy: Buy on dips [3][4] 02 Market Review: Spot Prices Rose Significantly - Spot Price: As of September 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1,220 yuan/ton (+20) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan for the week [11] 03 Market Review: The Price Difference between Soda Ash and Glass Continued to Narrow - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of September 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,290 yuan/ton, and the futures price of glass was 1,180 yuan/ton. The price difference between them was 110 yuan/ton (-3). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 110 yuan/ton (+29). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 212 yuan/ton (-14) [16] 04 Profit: Spot Price Increase, Gross Margin Improvement - Natural Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,578 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was - 358 yuan/ton (+21). - Coal - Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,159 yuan/ton (+4), and gross margin was - 9 yuan/ton (+6). - Petroleum Coke Production Process: Cost was 1,092 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was 18 yuan/ton (+21). - Fuel Price: On September 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 554 yuan/ton [20] 05 Supply: Remained Unchanged - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0). Currently, there were 225 production lines in operation [22] 06 Inventory: Continued to Decline - As of September 12, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,158.3 million weight boxes (-146.7). Among them, the inventory in North China was 924.6 million weight boxes (-84.2), in Central China was 622.7 million weight boxes (-47.3), in East China was 1,338.8 million weight boxes (-30.6), in South China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+9.5), in Southwest China was 1,242.4 million weight boxes (+35.4), the factory inventory in Shahe was 247 million weight boxes (-43), and the factory inventory in Hubei was 449 million weight boxes (-28) [26] 07 Deep - Processing: Production - Sales Ratio Increased - Production - Sales Ratio: On September 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (+88%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (+0.75) [28] 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Increase in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 vehicles. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [39] 09 Demand: Real - Estate Data Declined Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 29%, the new construction area was 48.4168 million m² (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million m² (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million m² (-8%). - Transaction Area: From September 2 to September 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 31% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. - Development Investment: In July, the real - estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [46] 10 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Futures Price Fluctuated and Adjusted - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,290 yuan/ton (-12). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was 10 yuan/ton (-12) [48][52][53] 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Profit in Loss - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda production method was 1,276 yuan/ton (-11), and the gross margin was - 36 yuan/ton (+1); the cost of the combined production method was 1,682 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross margin was - 55 yuan/ton (-7). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 1,989 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (0) [55][56][57] 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Production Increased - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production of enterprises was 761,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons), including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons) and 339,400 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1,100 tons). - Loss Volume: The loss volume was 110,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 9,400 tons). - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 6,916 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,268). - Inventory: As of September 12, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons), including 1.0345 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons) and 763,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons) [63][69] 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand Improved - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 459,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 326,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.81%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [72][77]