山金期货原油日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, spreads, and various influencing factors. It points out that the Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times this year. The Sino - US tariff is extended to November, and the benchmark scenario is expected to maintain a state of "fighting without breaking". OPEC+ plans to complete the second - stage production increase (1.65 million barrels per day) by August 2026, and the oil price is gradually entering a pressured stage. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US - Venezuela incident, and the Middle - East situation may have potential impacts on the oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Spread Data - Crude Oil Futures: On September 12, Sc was at 476.70 yuan/barrel, down 14.10 yuan (-2.87%) from the previous day and 5.30 yuan (-1.10%) from the previous week; WTI was at 62.60 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.58%) from the previous day and 0.63 dollars (1.02%) from the previous week; Brent was at 66.88 dollars/barrel, up 0.57 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and 1.21 dollars (1.84%) from the previous week [2]. - Internal and External Spreads: Sc - WTI was at 4.52 dollars/barrel, down 2.33 dollars (-34.01%) from the previous day and 1.33 dollars (-22.77%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at 0.24 dollars/barrel, down 2.54 dollars (-91.27%) from the previous day and 1.91 dollars (-88.74%) from the previous week [2]. - Sc Month - spreads: Sc_C1 - C2 was at -1.40 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (12.50%) from the previous day and down 1.50 yuan (-1500.00%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at -1.20 yuan/barrel, down 4.50 yuan (-136.36%) from the previous day and 8.90 yuan (-115.58%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C13 was at 1.80 yuan/barrel, down 8.40 yuan (-82.35%) from the previous day and 14.50 yuan (-88.96%) from the previous week [2]. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 69.68 dollars/barrel, down 1.15 dollars (-1.62%) from the previous day and up 0.32 dollars (0.46%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 1.66 dollars (2.39%) from the previous day and down 0.10 dollars (-0.14%) from the previous week; Oman was at 71.22 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (1.01%) from the previous day and 0.47 dollars (0.66%) from the previous week; Dubai was at 71.15 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.05%) from the previous day and 0.40 dollars (0.57%) from the previous week; ESPO was at 65.06 dollars/barrel, up 0.92 dollars (1.43%) from the previous day and 0.18 dollars (0.28%) from the previous week [2]. - Product Spot Prices: Diesel (East China) was at 6662.82 yuan/ton, down 12.55 yuan (-0.19%) from the previous day and 27.36 yuan (-0.41%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China) was at 7706.91 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous day and 43.09 yuan (-0.56%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic and Geopolitical Factors - Macro - economic: The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and may cut rates 2 - 3 times this year. The Sino - US tariff is extended to November, and the benchmark scenario is expected to maintain a state of "fighting without breaking". Trump signed the "Great and Beautiful Act" into law, and its implementation may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market [2]. - Geopolitical: The Russia - Ukraine cease - fire progress is slow, and new sanctions from the US and Europe against Russia may be launched. The Iran nuclear issue and the Houthi situation currently have limited impact. The Venezuela - related risks, if escalated, will affect the oil market. The Israeli attack on Qatar may cause concerns among Middle - East sovereign countries. Trump said his patience with Putin is running out and may take actions to restrict Russia's oil exports [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - OPEC+ plans to complete the second - stage production increase (1.65 million barrels per day) by August 2026. There is no specific plan yet (137,000 barrels per day in October currently), and the plan may be adjusted or withdrawn. The oil price is gradually entering a pressured stage, but OPEC+ may try to maintain the Back structure of the oil market [2]. 3.4 Industry News - On September 14, the Ukrainian drone and special forces attacked the Kirishi refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast, causing a fire. Trump threatened to impose major sanctions on Russia if NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. The US to September 12 weekly oil drilling totaled 416 wells, up from 414 wells in the previous period [3]. - The Venezuelan government reported that a US destroyer illegally intercepted and detained a Venezuelan fishing boat for 8 hours. China and the US held talks in Madrid starting on September 14 to discuss trade issues such as tariffs and export controls [8].