金属期权策略早报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different strategies are recommended for each sector and its selected varieties based on their market conditions and option factors [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a weak and volatile state, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended. Black metals maintain a large - amplitude volatile market, suitable for building a short - volatility portfolio strategy. Precious metals show a bullish upward trend, and a spot hedging strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures are provided, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2510) is 80,810, with a price increase of 150 and a trading volume of 9.16 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - PCR - The PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) of various metal options are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of option underlying market trends and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.30, with a change of - 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.72, with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 82,000, and the support point is 78,000. These levels are determined by the strike prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various metal options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 17.51%, and the weighted implied volatility is 19.24% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper Options: Fundamentally, the inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 12,000 tons. The market shows a high - level consolidation with support below. Option strategies include building a short - volatility seller's option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7]. - Aluminum/Alumina Options: Aluminum inventory has decreased, and the market shows a bullish upward trend. Strategies include a bullish call spread strategy, a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - Zinc/Pb Options: Zinc inventory has increased, and the market shows a volatile decline. Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - Nickel Options: Nickel inventory has increased, and the market shows a wide - range volatile pattern with upward pressure. Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [10]. - Tin Options: Tin supply is tight, and the market shows a short - term high - level volatile pattern with upward pressure. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - Lithium Carbonate Options: Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and the market shows a large - amplitude volatile and continuous decline. Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver Options: For gold, inflation data in the US is lower than expected, and the market shows a short - term consolidation and a strong upward breakthrough. Strategies include a bullish call spread strategy, a short - bullish volatility option seller's combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - Rebar Options: Rebar inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak consolidation with upward pressure. Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy [13]. - Iron Ore Options: Iron ore inventory has increased, and the market shows a volatile rebound. Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [13]. - Ferroalloy Options: Manganese silicon shows a weak and bearish market. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy [14]. - Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options: Industrial silicon production has increased, and the market shows a large - amplitude volatile pattern with upward pressure. Strategies include a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - Glass Options: Glass inventory has decreased, and the market shows a weak market with upward pressure. Strategies include a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [15].