MPOB报告中性偏空，棕榈油震荡调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.09% to 4445 ringgit/ton; palm oil 01 contract dropped 2.41% to 9296 yuan/ton; soybean oil 01 contract declined 1.51% to 8322 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 0.4% to 9857 yuan/ton; CBOT US soybean oil main contract increased 1.8% to 52.12 cents/pound; ICE canola active contract climbed 2.25% to 631.4 Canadian dollars/ton [4][7]. - Palm oil oscillated and closed lower during the week, while rapeseed oil showed good resistance. The August MPOB report indicated that due to weakening export demand, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in August increased to 2.2 million tons, and the ample supply pressured prices to adjust downward. The policy of re - allocating the US soybean oil biofuel blending obligation to large refineries faced obstacles. In early September, both production and demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened, reducing price support [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle next week. The US dollar index is weakly oscillating, and oil prices are also in an oscillating trend. Fundamentally, the August MPOB report was slightly bearish, with an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and a relatively ample supply. Indonesia's B50 policy may be implemented in two phases, weakening the policy drive. The Canadian government is considering canceling tariffs on China. The domestic demand for oil stockpiling before the Double Festival is expected to boost prices. In the short term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/5 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.12 | 51.2 | 0.92 | 1.80% | Cents/Pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4445 | 4449 | - 4 | - 0.09% | Ringgit/Ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9296 | 9526 | - 230 | - 2.41% | Yuan/Ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8322 | 8450 | - 128 | - 1.51% | Yuan/Ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9857 | 9818 | 39 | 0.40% | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 974 | - 1076 | 102 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 561 | 292 | 269 | - | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9320 | 9380 | - 60 | - 0.64% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8480 | 8510 | - 30 | - 0.35% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 10040 | 9860 | 180 | 1.83% | Yuan/Ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The August MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 2.202534 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1.855008 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.324672 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease; imports were 49036 tons, a 19.66% month - on - month decrease [8]. - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, and export data from different institutions also showed a decline. For example, according to SPPOMA, production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month [8]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50 in two phases [9]. - As of August 31, there were 209,033 small oil palm farmers in Malaysia, covering 747,012 hectares of plantations, obtaining the MSPO certification [9]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.73 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.4547 million tons from the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU has recognized Malaysia's Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification as a reliable standard [12]. - Malaysia's oil palm planting area in 2025 is expected to be 5.64 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.61 million hectares in 2024 [12]. - CIMB analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September to increase by 6% month - on - month to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report includes charts such as the price trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the price trends of the three major oils' futures and spot prices, various oil price spreads, and inventory trends of Malaysia, Indonesia, and domestic oils [13]