中美将于西班牙举行关税会谈

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Markets: The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, with capital logic overriding fundamental logic. In the US, economic stagflation risks are accumulating, and large - cap technology stocks are expected to drive the index up. For US Treasury futures, the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. For US stock index futures, they are expected to run strongly with high volatility [1][14][18]. - Commodity Markets: In the agricultural products market, the outlook for various products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton is complex, with different influencing factors. In the black metal market, prices of products like coking coal and steel are expected to oscillate. In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are likely to remain high and oscillate, and different non - ferrous metals have different investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations. In the energy and chemical market, prices of products such as crude oil, carbon emissions, and various chemical products also show different trends and investment opportunities [25][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CBO significantly lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4% from 1.9% in January. The inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5% by the end of the year. The US consumer confidence index in September decreased, and the long - term inflation expectation rose. The market is expected to run strongly with high volatility [12][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - In August, the new credit scale was lower than expected. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations. The private sector's endogenous financing willingness is still weak, and the M1 growth rate is expected to rise and then fall. The bond market is expected to oscillate and bottom out [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce launched anti - discrimination and anti - dumping investigations on the US integrated circuit field. The Ministry of Finance stated that there is still sufficient room for fiscal policy to exert force. The A - share market has rebounded unexpectedly, and it is recommended to focus on sub - sectors [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to 45% before moving to 50%. The palm oil market rebounded last week. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil and soybean oil [23][25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 2025/26 sugar - making season in Yunnan may start in mid - to late October. India's sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season remains at 34.9 million tons. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3%. Zheng sugar is expected to have limited downside space and may have a weak rebound in Q4 [27][28][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market is stable. Coking coal spot prices are weak, and the supply has recovered. Coke's first - round price cut has been implemented, and the second - round is expected. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton spinning mills' immediate profits have rebounded, but consumption terminal support is insufficient. The USDA's September report shows little change in US cotton supply and demand and a decrease in global inventory. Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate, with limited upside space [34][37][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories have increased. Steel demand has not recovered seasonally as expected, and prices are expected to oscillate due to limited downward space and weak demand [41][43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills'开机 rates remain high. The USDA slightly adjusted down the US soybean yield forecast, and the ending inventory is higher than expected. The future trend of soybean meal depends on Sino - US relations [44][45][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' profits show regional differences, with losses deepening in the Northeast and narrowing in North China. The futures price difference between rice and flour is expected to remain weak [47][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has increased. The market's speculation on old - crop corn is expected to cool down, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium term [49][50]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the designated red date delivery warehouses. The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [50][51][52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada launched a fast - track review mechanism for major mining projects. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is shut down. Copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][56]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery loading is increasing. It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, paying attention to short - term risks and mid - term short - selling opportunities [57][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer prices. India lowered the GST on renewable energy components. The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate between policy expectations and concentrated cancellations, and it is recommended to focus on option and arbitrage opportunities [59][60][64]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of Xinjiang silicon enterprises has increased. Industrial silicon prices are expected to run between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Two Indonesian mining companies were exposed for "illegal mining". The nickel market is expected to have upward potential, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste lead - acid batteries has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices in the mid - term [70][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread is at a premium. Zinc concentrate port inventories have increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities [74][75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA main contract price is oscillating. The carbon price is expected to run strongly due to the approaching compliance deadline [76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has increased. A drone attacked a Russian port. Oil prices are oscillating, and short - term geopolitical risks should be noted [78][79][80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices have been slightly lowered. The industry is maintaining a 20% production cut, and it is recommended to focus on production cut sustainability and new capacity release [81][83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The utilization rates of downstream styrene industries have increased. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the resolution of inventory contradictions after the peak season should be noted [84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have dropped. The supply - demand situation is expected to reduce inventory in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited [87][88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. PTA is in a stage of neutral inventory, low valuation, and weak drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust [89][90][91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market is mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly adjusted. The PVC fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is running weakly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the 2601 contract may decline further in the medium term [95][96]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [96][97]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei is flat. It is recommended to focus on the long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage opportunity [98]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The annual container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port has exceeded 30 million TEU. The SCFI composite index has decreased. Freight rates are at risk of decline, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [99][100][101].