纸浆2025年09月第2周报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of pulp is weak. Although there are positive factors from the real - estate policy on pulp prices, the current pulp fundamentals remain pessimistic, which may prevent macro - drivers from effectively affecting pulp prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Changes - The downstream paper industry's cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement efforts resist pulp price increases. The average market prices of imported hardwood pulp and natural pulp have declined, while the average market price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp remains stable [4]. - Real - estate policies have increased market expectations of policy relaxation, and the real - estate stock market is active. Since the domestic real - estate market has a leading relationship with pulp prices and real - estate sales area has been growing steadily for 7 months, this is a significant positive for SP single - side [4][5]. - In August, the import value of domestic pulp decreased for two consecutive months to $1.545 billion, and in July, the import value of US pulp increased to $378 million, with a combined (staggered - month) total of $1.923 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, the lowest decline since February 2024. As of July, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil decreased for three consecutive months, which is negative for SP single - side [18]. - Since September, the inventory of SHFE SP has decreased for six consecutive months, while the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port has increased for three consecutive months, and that in Changshu Port has decreased for two consecutive months. The total inventory has a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% but a marginal increase, which is negative for SP single - side [20]. - As of July, Canada's trade deficit increased marginally, which is slightly positive for SP single - side. As of August, the domestic total import and export volume increased year - on - year, but the growth rate narrowed for two consecutive months, which is slightly negative for SP single - side [29]. - The stock market indices such as the Small and Medium 100 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and Galaxy CSI Index have risen, and the ChinaBond New Composite Index has declined for two consecutive months, which is positive for SP single - side [34]. - As of August, the import of hardwood chips increased, while the import of hardwood pulp decreased. The import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased. The consumption of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp increased, with the consumption ratio showing a slight negative impact on the spread between hardwood and softwood pulp [43]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's production of machine - made paper and paperboard decreased, and the overall production growth rate slowed down, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [49]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's finished - product inventory increased marginally, which is positive for SP single - side, while the monthly average profit - loss difference decreased marginally, which is negative for SP single - side [56]. - The European softwood pulp inventory and consumption increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, which is negative for SP single - side. The domestic import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased, but the total long - fiber import increased marginally, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [61].