钢材周报：供需逻辑尚未结束，政策预期带来扰动-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures first declined and then rose, with a similar pattern to the previous week, showing a generally weak and volatile trend. After the military parade, pig iron production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, while the contradiction in steel was mainly concentrated in rebar. The inventory in Hangzhou continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history, and the warehouse receipt volume kept increasing, leading to rising delivery pressure. The contradiction in the raw material end was not obvious for the time being. The high pig iron production supported the demand for raw materials. The iron ore inventory was stable, the recovery speed of coking coal production was average, and the overall inventory decreased [3]. - Currently, the downstream demand for construction steel has not shown the characteristics of the peak season, and the month - on - month change in apparent demand is not significant. The inventory in East China and the delivery pressure are expected to continue to suppress the upside space of rebar. However, September - October is also a period prone to macro - policy disturbances. In 2023, the "trillion - yuan treasury bond" and last year's "924" market both brought about stage - by - stage increases. Currently, the overall valuation of the black series is not high, and the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "raising the price level" will also limit the downside space of the market. At present, it is a game between weak overall demand and a strong macro - environment. The negative feedback contradiction in the current supply - demand level is accumulating, and the risk of a callback still needs to be vigilant [3]. - In terms of spot - futures, the price difference between rebar in Guangzhou and that in East China is at an absolute low. At the same time, the 01 basis based on East China is running stably and strongly. A 01 cash - and - carry operation can be considered for Guangzhou rebar [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In July 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, and the cumulative production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the cumulative production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The monthly production of steel was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, and the cumulative production was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The monthly steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, and the cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The monthly steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. Five - Major Steel Weekly Data - As of September 12, 2025, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 6.5386 million tons, an increase of 138,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.46%. For wire rods, the weekly production was 0.849 million tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8%. The weekly consumption was 0.84 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%. The inventory was 1.2038 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For hot - rolled coils, the weekly production was 3.2514 million tons, an increase of 109,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 3.2616 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. For cold - rolled coils, the weekly production was 0.8467 million tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.59%. The weekly consumption was 0.8616 million tons, an increase of 41,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.35%. The inventory was 1.7837 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. For medium - heavy plates, the weekly production was 1.5067 million tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The weekly consumption was 1.4864 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.56%. The inventory was 1.8868 million tons, an increase of 20,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.72%. The total weekly production of the five major steels was 8.5724 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. The total weekly consumption was 8.43 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. The total inventory was 15.15 million tons, an increase of 139,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76% [6]. Steel Production Profit - On September 11, 2025, for rebar - blast furnace in East China, the profit was 75 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 3 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 123 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 197 with a change of 0. In North China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 55 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 63 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 147 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 96 with a change of 0. In Central China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 55 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 185 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of - 10 [21]. Steel Demand - In the real estate high - frequency data, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 4.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 10% [28]. - Regarding cement and concrete demand, the cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume is relatively balanced, and the absolute level is comparable to that of the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14% [31]. - In August, the steel export volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level in the same period [37]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis maintained a relatively strong trend. The basis for the October contract was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the basis for the January 01 contract was at a neutral level. Currently, the rebar warehouse receipt volume is the highest in the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain at a relatively high level. The hot - rolled coil basis remained stable this week [51][56]. - The rebar monthly spread was running at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract. The 10 - 1 month spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with fewer warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [61][65].