碳酸锂周报：供应端再传复产，碳酸锂宽幅震荡-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of wide - range fluctuation. Supply continues to increase, but terminal demand is strong, evidenced by the reduction in total inventory. Prices are supported in the short - term and are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - The State Council plans to conduct comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. China's August PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year, with the previous value at - 3.6%, and the month - on - month change turned flat from a 0.2% decline last month. August CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, with the previous value at 0%, and the month - on - month change was flat. China's exports in August increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.3%. US inflation was in line with expectations, with August CPI increasing by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The August core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. The market is pricing in three interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged [3]. 3.2 Supply - side - This week, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching over 20,000 tons weekly and hitting a new high for the year. The significant increase in spodumene production offset the reduction in mica and salt lake production. As of September 12, lithium carbonate production was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.64%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58% [4][9]. 3.3 Demand - side - From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 181,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period last September and a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a 25% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 179,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last September and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 58.1%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.122 million units, a 33% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore decreased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 12, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 65,367 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,830 yuan, and the industry profit was 7,809 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 920 yuan [4][48][50]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of September 11, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 36,213 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,262 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, the smelter inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream material factories continued to replenish their stocks [5][33]. 3.6 Market Outlook - This week, the new quotes for battery - grade lithium carbonate mostly fluctuated around the flat - water level, the basis strengthened, and the large - discount supplies decreased compared to the previous period. Lithium salt factories still had a price - holding sentiment, and most of the spot orders were pre - sold. The restocking enthusiasm of downstream material factories was fair, and market circulation improved. Overall, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, but the total inventory also decreased synchronously, indicating strong terminal demand. Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - battery Industry - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry decreased this week. For example, the 6% CIF spodumene price was $800 per ton, a 3.61% decrease compared to last week; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week. However, some products such as the 523 ternary material and 523 ternary precursor saw price increases [6]. 3.8 Market Review - As of September 12, LC2511 closed at 71,160 yuan per ton, a 4.2% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week, and the basis changed from a premium to a slight discount. The main contract position was 3.09 million. The main contract mostly declined this week. The news of Ningde's resumption of production had a negative impact on market sentiment [7]. 3.9 Production of Other Products - As of September 12, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,235 tons, a week - on - week increase of 115 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,307 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2% [11][14]. 3.10 Downstream Inventory - As of September 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 49,550 tons, an increase of 1,350 tons compared to last week. The finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the industry was in a situation of strong supply and demand [37]. 3.11 Cost - side - As of September 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. Lithium ore prices fluctuated around lithium salt prices, with low spot circulation [48]. 3.12 Profit of Other Products - As of September 12, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,514 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,600 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 184 yuan. The production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,362 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 573 yuan per ton, and it was in a loss state of 943 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [53][56].