Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September is positive for rubber prices. There is some support on the supply side, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side shows good performance, and inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8][9][87][88]. - The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. For the operation strategy, consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [9][90][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2601, ranged between 15,670 - 16,350 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated downward with a relatively large overall decline. As of the close on the afternoon of September 12, 2025, the main contract RU2601 closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 505 points for the week, a decrease of 3.09% [14]. Spot Price - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of September 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,005 yuan/ton, narrowing 170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined compared with last week [26][28]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 from March last year to March this year. The August PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The August CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000. The September Michigan consumer confidence index was at a new low since May. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates by 100 basis points starting from September [29][30]. - European economic data: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the inflation - reduction process in the eurozone has ended [30]. - Chinese economic data: In August, China's core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat. The total import and export value in August increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The automobile production and sales in August increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, the automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [32][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam increased significantly compared with the previous month, while that in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in July was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% compared with the previous month [40]. - Synthetic rubber production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [44][48]. - Tire imports: As of July 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [52]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise operating rates: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99% compared with last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81% compared with last week [54]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The monthly sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1% [58][61]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26% [67]. - Tire exports: As of July 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 151,740 tons, a decrease of 10,490 tons compared with last week. As of September 7, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons or 0.57%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 793,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 465,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.66% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recently, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, boosting raw material prices. In domestic producing areas, the new rubber supply rhythm has slowed down. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years [85]. - Demand side: Last week, enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, and the operating rates of tire enterprises significantly rebounded. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, with a high operating rate; the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly, and downstream stocking was cautious. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [85]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [86]. Future Outlook - Macro aspect: The significant downward revision of US non - farm payrolls and the unexpected decline in US PPI inflation data last week have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's core CPI in August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month; the PPI decline narrowed, and the month - on - month figure was flat, ending the eight - month downward trend [87]. - Fundamental aspect: On the supply side, the weather in Southeast Asian main producing areas has affected the tapping progress, and the new rubber supply rhythm in domestic producing areas has slowed down. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82%, with the increase rate lower than in previous years. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of all - steel tires was continuously depleted, and the inventory of semi - steel tires was depleted slowly. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 16.4% year - on - year respectively. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. The cumulative tire production in 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export data increased slightly year - on - year. In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly, with a slightly larger depletion rate [87]. Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [90]. - Operation strategy: Consider going long at low levels on the long - side; pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between 2511 - 2601; and temporarily hold off on options [91].
橡胶周报：宏观提振库存去化，盘面有望震荡偏强-20250915
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-09-15 03:18