国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, the strategy is to go long at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans closed higher, and attention should be paid to the results of China - US negotiations [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][10]. - Soybean No.1: It will move in a range [2][12]. - Corn: It will move in a range [2][15]. - Sugar: It will mainly move in a range [2][19]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the purchase of new cotton [2][23]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [2][28]. - Hogs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to change, but policies are strong [2][30]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 9,296 yuan/ton (-0.36%) and 9,336 yuan/ton (0.43%) respectively; soybean oil's were 8,322 yuan/ton (-0.17%) and 8,356 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively. CBOT soybean oil rose 1.01% [4]. - News: Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, up 8 million tons from last month's estimate. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamentals: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 3070 yuan/ton (+0.13%) and 3066 yuan/ton (-0.68%) respectively; DCE soybean No.1 2511's were 3959 yuan/ton (+0.84%) and 3956 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [11]. - News: On September 12, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to lower yield estimates and active short - covering. The US soybean production is slightly increased to 43.01 billion bushels [11][12]. Corn - Fundamentals: C2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,197 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,196 yuan/ton (-0.05%) respectively; C2601's were 2,167 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,167 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [16]. - News: Northern corn port collection prices remained flat, and Northeast enterprise corn prices were strong, while North China corn prices were stable to weak [17]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.52 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5540 yuan/ton [19]. - News: India's monsoon rainfall increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [19]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 13,860 yuan/ton (0.18%) and 13900 yuan/ton (0.29%) respectively. Spot prices of different regions showed slight changes [23]. - News: Cotton spot trading was cold, and the cotton yarn market was tepid. The USDA's monthly report adjusted China's cotton data [24]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2510 and 2601 futures prices decreased by 0.43% and 0.24% respectively. Spot prices in different regions showed some changes [28]. - Outlook: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [28]. Hogs - Fundamentals: Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13480 yuan/ton, 13400 yuan/ton, and 14340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of different contracts showed changes [30]. - Market Logic: The supply in September is large, and the spot price center is expected to decline. The 7 - month contract may be regulated by policies in the short term [32]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: Spot prices of different varieties showed changes, and futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased by 0.96% and 0.03% respectively [34]. - Market Situation: New peanuts in some areas are starting to be listed, with small volumes and unstable prices. New peanuts are expected to be fully listed in early October [35].