国泰海通晨报-20250915

Macro Research - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has turned down, primarily due to the weakening support from government bonds, with August's new social financing amounting to 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year decline in 2025 [4][27] - New government bond financing in August was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.519 trillion yuan, while the average monthly increase from January to July was nearly 700 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in the driving force of government bonds on social financing [4][27] - The M1 and M2 money supply has continued to rise year-on-year, despite weak credit expansion, suggesting that fiscal spending remains robust [5][28] Strategy Research - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with the A/H share indices likely to reach new highs within the year, driven by accelerated economic transformation and reduced uncertainty in social development [7][29] - Emerging technologies are identified as a key investment theme, while cyclical financial stocks are seen as potential dark horses [9][29] - The market is witnessing a broadening of opportunities, with both emerging technology sectors and traditional sectors showing signs of recovery and valuation improvement [9][29] Overseas Strategy Research - Foreign capital tends to exhibit a tendency for synchronous trading in the A/H market, with a strong positive correlation between the inflow of foreign capital into mainland China and Hong Kong stocks [12][13] - Foreign investors prefer core assets with local market characteristics, particularly in the financial sector, which holds a significant portion of foreign investments in both A and H shares [14] - The preference for high-quality, undervalued stocks is evident among foreign investors, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals [15]