铜周报：宏观产业共振，铜价维持偏强格局-20250915

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macro and Industry Resonance, Copper Price Maintains a Bullish Pattern [1] Report Date - September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend due to the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which will weaken the US dollar and benefit the copper price. Domestically, with the arrival of the peak season, the market maintains rigid demand purchases, and overall demand has increased. On the supply side, with the arrival of the high - maintenance period, the market is expected to gradually tighten. Although the consumption is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, the optimistic prospect of domestic consumption recovery and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September are expected to support the copper price [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply Side: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee was -$41.4/ton, a weekly decrease of $0.9/ton, and the port inventory of domestic copper concentrate was 574,000 tons, slightly increasing from a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. In September, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to the maintenance peak of smelters and policy impacts [5]. - Demand Side: As of September 11, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 67.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 14.19 percentage points. The high copper price has inhibited consumption. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [5]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory was 94,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14.91%. As of September 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 144,300 tons, a weekly increase of 2.63%. As of September 12, the LME copper inventory was 154,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.53%. The global copper inventory increased slightly [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The US economic data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased, supply is expected to tighten, and the copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend [6]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Macro Data Overview: China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, CPI decreased year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the new social financing scale and loans increased. The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, and the August CPI was in line with expectations. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the second time [14]. - Industry News Overview: The US added copper to the critical minerals list, increasing the possibility of tariff hikes in 2027. Peru's July copper production increased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's July copper production increased slightly. China's copper concentrate imports increased in August, while the imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased. Freeport suspended mining operations in Indonesia, and Panama plans to evaluate the restart of a copper mine [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - Premium and Discount: The import supply hit the market, causing the premium to decline. The LME copper remained at a discount, but the discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper spread increased slightly [20]. - Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad: As of September 12, the Shanghai copper futures position decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 5.01% week - on - week. As of September 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 13.19% week - on - week. As of September 9, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased by 7.93% week - on - week [22]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply Side: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production had a stable growth rate, and it is expected to decrease in September [31]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate increasing [34]. - Import and Export: As of September 12, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper first decreased and then increased. In July, China's refined copper imports increased year - on - year, and in August, the imports of unforged copper and copper products increased year - on - year [38]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory increased, the domestic copper social inventory increased slightly, and the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, with the global copper inventory increasing slightly [41].