Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous de - stocking of port inventory, stable high external quotations, the entry of the downstream white cardboard market into the traditional peak season, and a slight improvement in overall demand, but with low profits for base paper and limited rebound of the futures market due to the sentiment of the chemical sector, it is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 4950 - 5210 this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review - Last week, the spot market price of pulp decreased slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star dropped to 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish dropped to 4180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-0.48%). The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained flat [10][14]. - Pulp Futures Review - Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and declined in a 200 - point range, closing at 4990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton (-1.42%). The weighted trading volume was 1.72 million lots, an increase of 345,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 366,000 lots, an increase of 21,100 lots [16]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison - The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the futures contract widened by 2 yuan/ton to 660 yuan/ton compared with last week [20]. - Log Futures Review - The main log futures contract 2511 oscillated in a range last week, closing at 798.0 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 2.0 yuan/cubic meter (-0.25%). The weighted trading volume was 42,300 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 22,100 lots, a decrease of 200 lots [21]. 2. Pulp Supply - side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production - Last week, pulp production was 481,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons (-1.23%). It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp this week will be about 207,000 tons and 210,000 tons respectively [23]. - Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%; that of chemical mechanical pulp was 81.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable next week [26]. - Monthly Pulp Production - In August 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.127 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (0.14%); wood pulp production was 1.816 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (0.17%); non - wood pulp production remained flat [28]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical and Broad - leaf Pulp - In August 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 892,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (-0.45%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 924,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons (0.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [33]. - Monthly Production Profits of Broad - leaf and Chemical Mechanical Pulp - In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 526 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.3 yuan/ton (2.59%); the production loss of chemical mechanical pulp decreased by 3.3 yuan/ton to - 304.6 yuan/ton [37]. - Pulp Imports - In August 2025, pulp imports were 2.6529 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 223,800 tons (-7.78%) and a year - on - year decrease of 154,500 tons (-5.5%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 24.1083 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14 million tons (5%) [38]. 3. Pulp Demand - side Analysis - Downstream Capacity Utilization - Living Paper: Last week, the production of domestic living paper was 280,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons (-0.25%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 279,000 tons [40]. - Offset Paper: Last week, the production of offset paper was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (5.13%), and the capacity utilization rate was 55.7%, a week - on - week increase of 2.8%. It is expected that the production this week will remain at about 205,000 tons [44]. - Coated Paper: Last week, the production of coated paper was 78,000 tons, remaining flat. The capacity utilization rate was 57.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 82,000 tons [47]. - White Cardboard: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons (0.59%), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. It is expected that the production this week will be about 350,000 tons [50]. - Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit - Living Paper and White Cardboard: Last week, the gross profit of living paper was 191 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton (-2.05%), and the gross profit of social white cardboard decreased by 48% [53]. - Offset Paper and Coated Paper: Last week, the average cost of offset paper decreased by 4.3 yuan/ton to 4,889.1 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton. The average cost of coated paper decreased by 3.9 yuan/ton to 4,787 yuan/ton, and the gross profit decreased by 82 yuan/ton to 388 yuan/ton [56]. - Domestic Pulp Consumption - In August 2025, the actual consumption of pulp was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,000 tons (2.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 99,000 tons (3.03%) [57]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis - Living Paper: The prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper in Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangxi remained stable or increased slightly last week [60]. - Cultural Paper: The prices of offset paper and coated paper in Shandong decreased last week [60]. - White Board Paper and White Cardboard: The prices of white board paper in Shandong and Tianjin remained stable, and most white cardboard prices in Jiangsu remained stable, with one variety decreasing by 2.15% [64]. 4. Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory - Currently, the overall port inventory is de - stocking. The total inventory of major ports is 2.062 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons (-0.19%). Qingdao Port's inventory increased by 3,000 tons (0.21%) to 1.418 million tons. Changshu Port's inventory decreased by 18,000 tons (3.73%) to 464,000 tons, and Tianjin Port's inventory increased by 8,000 tons (13.33%) to 68,000 tons [67][70]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts - Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 234,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,665 tons (-0.71%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 759 tons (-0.35%) to 218,400 tons [71].
纸浆：下游需求稍有改善，浆价小幅震荡反弹
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-15 03:56