首席点评：降息周期即将重启？

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is entering a "central bank super week", with the market generally expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time to address the weak labor market. Gold and silver may show a strong trend as the interest - rate cut approaches, while copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation [1][2][3]. - The power equipment industry has a good growth outlook, with the traditional power equipment aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 6% from 2025 - 2026, and the new - energy equipment expecting stable or increasing revenue [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - International News: US stocks closed mixed. The Dow Jones fell 0.59%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.05%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.44% to a new high. Vaccine stocks declined, while most large - tech stocks rose [4]. - Domestic News: The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang deployed measures to promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening support [5]. - Industry News: Three departments issued a work plan for the power equipment industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming for stable growth, with specific targets for traditional and new - energy equipment [6]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the daily return data of multiple overseas products from September 11th to 12th, such as the FTSE China A50 futures, the US dollar index, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - Financial Products - Stock Index: The US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the stock index showed differentiation in the previous trading day. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [3][9]. - Treasury Bonds: The long - end of treasury bonds strengthened, but due to factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, economic data, and the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, the treasury - bond futures prices are expected to remain weak [10]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose 1.59% on Friday night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude - oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [11]. - Methanol: Methanol fell 0.17% on Friday night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [12]. - Rubber: The natural - rubber futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [13]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market remained weak. The inventory of PE and PP is gradually being digested, and the focus is on the support from downstream procurement [14]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass futures oscillated, and the soda - ash futures continued to consolidate. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the autumn consumption and policy changes [15]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold is consolidating at a high level, and silver is strengthening. Inflation data and employment data strengthen the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. Gold has clear long - term drivers, and gold and silver may show a strong trend, but short - term profit - taking adjustments should be noted [2][16]. - Copper: Copper prices fell 0.31% on the weekend night session. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. Multiple factors coexist, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [3][17]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell 0.02% on the weekend night session. The smelting profit has turned positive, and the output is expected to increase. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is expected to increase, while the demand for ternary materials is expected to decline and that for lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase. The inventory is being depleted faster. The futures price may maintain high volatility, and the price is under pressure [19]. - Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke futures were strong on Friday night. The steel market shows a differentiation between building materials and plates. The iron - water output is recovering, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [20]. - Iron Ore: Steel mills are resuming production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron - ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is being depleted rapidly. The market is expected to be strong and volatile [21]. - Steel: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of steel billets is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. There is a differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the short - term market is expected to adjust [22][23]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weak at night. The USDA report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, and the domestic market may be weak and volatile [24]. - Oils and Fats: The soybean - oil futures rose slightly at night, while the palm - oil and rapeseed - oil futures were weak. The MPOB report shows an increase in Malaysian palm - oil inventory, and the impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations and US biodiesel policies needs to be monitored [25]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but is dragged down by import and new - season supply. The short - term trend is bearish [26]. - Cotton: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new - cotton purchases and the traditional peak - season demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [27]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC futures were weak on Friday, falling 5.27%. The SCFI European - line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is accelerating its decline. The short - term trend depends on the decline rate of the spot freight rate [28][29]