水泥供给侧改革稳步推进，美联储9月降息预期升温

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68]. Core Insights - The cement supply-side reform is progressing steadily, and expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are rising [3]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various policies being implemented to support housing transactions and mortgage rates [3]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand, leading to improved market fundamentals [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes significant policy changes aimed at improving real estate registration and facilitating housing transactions, with over 2,200 counties adopting the "house delivery equals certificate delivery" measure [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for monetary and fiscal policy space to expand, particularly in light of the easing monetary policies in Europe and the U.S. [3]. - It mentions that the real estate market is entering a bottoming phase after a decline in sales area for over three years, increasing sensitivity to policy easing [3]. Recent High-Frequency Data - As of September 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.7 CNY/ton, showing a 0.3% decrease from the previous week and a 9.6% decrease year-on-year [4][14]. - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1164.3 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.7% increase from the previous week but a 6.5% decrease year-on-year [20][23]. Sector Review - The construction materials index increased by 2.45%, outperforming the broader market indices, with sub-sectors like refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showing notable gains [5][55]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades and those with strong fundamentals expected to recover [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades, undervalued stocks with long-term growth potential, and leading cyclical construction material companies [6].