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通胀趋势上行而劳动力趋弱，联储降息节奏不改，黄金持续受益
Soochow Securities·2025-09-15 04:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking it among the top sectors [15]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the ongoing inflation trend and a weakening labor market, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continuing [4][46]. - The market is beginning to price in the liquidity easing from the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a slight improvement in downstream demand as the peak season approaches [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points, with significant gains across all sub-sectors [15]. - Precious metals saw a 5.13% increase, energy metals rose by 1.35%, industrial metals increased by 4.10%, small metals by 4.39%, and new materials by 2.45% [15]. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of September 12, LME copper closed at $10,068 per ton, up 1.72% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥81,060 per ton, up 1.15% [2]. Supply tightness is expected due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [2][32]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, up 3.78%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,120 per ton, up 2.05% [3]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable at 44.085 million tons [38]. - Zinc: LME zinc closed at $2,956 per ton, up 3.45%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,305 per ton, up 0.68% [40]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME stocks decreasing and SHFE stocks increasing [40]. - Tin: LME tin closed at $34,955 per ton, up 2.07%, and SHFE tin at ¥273,950 per ton, up 0.55% [43]. Supply recovery from Myanmar is slower than expected [43]. Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $3,680.70 per ounce, up 1.12%, and SHFE gold at ¥834.22 per gram, up 2.28% [4][46]. The inflation trend continues to rise while labor market data shows weakness, supporting the outlook for gold [4][47].