有色金属周报：国内外宏观乐观预期和部分精炼锡产能检修支撑锡价-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].