PTA:基本面驱动不足,PTA延续弱势震荡,MEG:供应压力难解,MEG偏弱运行
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-15 04:40
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA is expected to continue its weak oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Although the cost side provides some support and there is a mild recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with an expected increase in domestic supply, the balance sheet may shift from destocking to stockpiling. Also, the processing fee is at a low level [6]. - MEG is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. It is in a destocking cycle, but the total supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning, and the demand side shows a slow increase in polyester load. Attention should be paid to the lower support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - Market Review: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. Thus, international oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices. As of September 12, the Asian PX closing price was $831.33 per ton CFR China, up $1.33 per ton from September 5 [16]. - PX Capacity Utilization: There was no device change this week, and production was stable. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 84.63%, with a 0% week - on - week change. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 74.71%, up 0.27% week - on - week [19]. - PX - Naphtha Price Spread: As of September 12, the PX - naphtha price spread was $232.8 per ton, down $0.92 per ton from September 5. With the increase in downstream PTA operating rate, PX is entering a destocking phase, and the PX - naphtha price spread is expected to rebound [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: With the restart of previously overhauled PTA devices and mediocre terminal orders during the traditional peak season, the PTA balance sheet is still destocking. However, due to overall poor commodity performance and concerns about future supply increases, PTA oscillated narrowly this week. As of September 12, the PTA spot price was 4,565 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 79 [25]. - Capacity Utilization: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization reached 74.95%, up 4.30% week - on - week and down 6.33% year - on - year. The restart of previously overhauled devices led to an increase in capacity utilization. In September, with the planned and expected restart of multiple devices, the domestic PTA device capacity utilization is expected to reach around 78% [28]. - Processing Fee: The PTA processing fee has weakened again due to increased domestic supply and slow terminal recovery. However, with a low valuation, the further downward space is limited, and it is expected to continue its weak pattern in the short - term [30]. - Supply - Demand in September: In September, with insufficient PTA device overhauls and the restart of overhauled devices, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from destocking to a loose balance [33]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Trend: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has no obvious change, and the main port inventory has reached a new low this year. However, due to new capacity commissioning and high domestic operating rates, the price decline has widened, once breaking through the 4,400 - yuan integer mark. As of September 12, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,378 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,460 yuan per ton [38]. - Domestic Production: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 66.55%, down 0.90% week - on - week. The integrated device capacity utilization was 66.92%, up 0.09% week - on - week, and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 65.96%, down 2.47% week - on - week. In September, with the restart of some domestic existing devices and the end of the overhaul season, the overall ethylene glycol production is expected to continue to rise [42]. - Port Inventory: As of September 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 11.28 tons. As of September 11, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from September 8 and 1.31 tons from September 4 [43]. - Processing Profit: With the ethylene glycol main port inventory remaining at a low level, but new device commissioning and a pessimistic supply outlook, the ethylene glycol price declined this week. With raw material prices showing different trends, the sample profits of each ethylene glycol process showed both increases and decreases. As of September 12, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $102.41 per ton, down $3.99 per ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 53.39 yuan per ton, up 3.31 yuan per ton from last week [48]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industry Chain - Polyester Production: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization was 87.9%, up 0.56% week - on - week. There is no clear expected change in polyester device supply next week, and domestic polyester production is expected to remain stable [51]. - Capacity Utilization Expectation: In August, the polyester operating rate fluctuated narrowly. In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and overhauled devices, and the expected commissioning of multiple new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [54]. - Capacity Utilization of Polyester Filament: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 91.43%, up 0.15% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was stable at 86.82%, up 0.37% week - on - week. The capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 81.99%, up 1.57% week - on - week [57]. - Product Inventory: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall sales level is average. The finished product inventory of polyester filament factories has slightly accumulated this week [60]. - Cash Flow of Polyester Products: With the decrease in polymerization cost, the transaction center of polyester products has also decreased, but the decline is smaller than that of raw materials, resulting in a partial repair of cash flow [62]. - Weaving Load: As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.42%, the same as the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.55 days, an increase of 0.66 days from last week. Order recovery is less than expected, and the weaving load is expected to remain stable [67]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - Cost Side: Geopolitical instability supports oil prices, but OPEC+ may increase production in October, and demand has a seasonal decline. International oil prices are expected to face pressure next week. PX supply - demand is weak due to the previous unexpected shutdown of downstream PTA devices [68]. - Supply Side: PTA capacity utilization has increased this week. MEG total capacity utilization has decreased slightly, with a slight increase in integrated device capacity utilization and a decrease in coal - based capacity utilization [68]. - Demand Side: Polyester capacity utilization has increased, and the chemical fiber weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has remained the same. Order recovery is less than expected, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state [68]. - Inventory: PTA has a strong expectation of future supply - demand stockpiling. MEG port inventory in the East China main port area has decreased [68].