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金融期货早评-20250915
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-15 04:32
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Financial Futures - Domestic policies will focus more on the livelihood sector to address income - distribution imbalances and stimulate effective demand. The economy is marginally recovering, but government support is still needed. Overseas, US inflation remains resilient, and the market is concerned about the US employment market. The Fed's decision is crucial [1]. - The US dollar index shows signs of downward break - out. The short - term trend of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate depends on internal and external factors. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern around 7.1 [2]. - For the stock index, the adjustment continues, and the market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4]. - The bond market may have a certain downward space in yield this week, but the space may be limited. The progress of Sino - US talks may affect both the stock and bond markets [6]. - For the container shipping market, the SCFI European line continues to decline, and the short - term futures price is likely to maintain a downward trend. It is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions carefully [10]. Base Metals - Copper is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease, and the supply - demand situation is weak on both sides [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile. The key to aluminum prices is inventory, alumina has a supply - surplus problem, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum [12][13][15]. - Zinc is expected to be volatile. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile with bottom support. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy may decrease, and the supply is tight in the short term [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize. Policy support may extend the peak season, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [19]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon is expected to have limited upward space and may be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating [24]. - Polysilicon is expected to be volatile. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [25]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. The price is pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - For steel products, the market is expected to be in a volatile consolidation pattern. The fundamentals are under pressure, but macro expectations and pre - holiday demand provide some support [29]. - Iron ore prices are short - term strong but limited by steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to be lightly long at certain price levels. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG is supported by the overseas market. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weak [37]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [39]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions. The port pressure is large, and the supply from Iran is increasing [41]. - PP is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support [45]. - PE is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are weakly trending. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US government's "shutdown" risk, and China's August social financing and loan data [1]. - The core logic is that domestic policies will focus on the livelihood sector, the economy is marginally recovering, and overseas inflation and employment are key concerns [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The key factors affecting the exchange rate are the Fed's decision and internal and external factors in China [1][2]. - The short - term trend of the exchange rate depends on the interaction of internal and external factors, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index showed a slight volume contraction, with different performances between large and small - cap stocks. The market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates [4]. - It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the Fed's decision and Sino - US economic and trade talks are important [6]. Bond Market - The bond market adjusted last week due to the regulations on public fund redemption fees. The fundamentals show weak loan demand, and the central bank's measures support the capital market [6][7]. - The yield may decline this week, but the space is limited. The progress of Sino - US talks is a key factor [6]. Container Shipping - The previous trading day's container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The spot market prices of major shipping companies have changed [7][8]. - The short - term futures price is likely to decline, and it is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver's market performance last week was strong, with changes in inventory and fund positions. The market is focused on the Fed's decision, personnel adjustment, and bond - market risks [10]. - It is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Base Metals - Copper: The price increased last week due to the US inflation data. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton [11]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum increased, alumina decreased, and cast aluminum alloy increased. The key factors are the Fed's decision, seasonal demand, and scrap aluminum supply [12][13][15]. - Zinc: The price was slightly up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The prices were up slightly. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin: The price increased slightly. It is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The futures price declined last week. The supply and demand situation in the lithium battery industry chain has changed, and policy support may stabilize the price [19][20]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The futures price was slightly down. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, so the upward space is limited [22][24]. - Polysilicon: The futures price declined. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [23][25]. - Lead: The price increased. The price was pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - Steel products: The price showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The supply has recovered, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile [28][29]. - Iron ore: The price is short - term strong. The supply is tightening in the short term, and the demand is recovering, but it is limited by steel demand and steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke: The price is affected by supply and demand changes. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: The prices were slightly up and down. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [32][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The price was up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG: The price was down. The overseas market provides support, and the domestic supply is controllable, with slightly weak demand [35][37]. - PX - TA: The price is volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [38][39]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol: The price was down. It is recommended to reduce long positions due to port pressure and increasing Iranian supply [41]. - PP: The price was down. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support, so it is expected to be oscillating [45]. - PE: The price was down. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow, so it is expected to be oscillating [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices were down. They follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the fundamentals are weak, so it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil: The price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt: The price was down. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The prices were down. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52].