尿素早评：等待现货企稳-20250915

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic considering the eased China - India relations. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Urea Futures Price - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% - UR05 closed at 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% - UR09 closed at 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - In Shandong, it was 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Henan, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% - In Hebei, it was 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Northeast China, it was 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Jiangsu, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Basis and Spread - The spread between Shandong spot and UR was - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 880 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2550 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Shandong was 5100 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 300,585 lots [1] Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices (View score: 0) [1]