甲醇日评：低位震荡，关注低多机会-20250915

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, mainly due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with inland areas is also relatively low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA05 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); MA09 closed at 2230 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.77%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2277.50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2385 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2272.50 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan/ton (-0.55%); in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change [1]. - Basis: The basis of 太仓 spot - MA was -101.50 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1]. b) Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The prices of 部尔多斯Q5500, 大同Q5500, and 榆林Q6000 remained unchanged at 495 yuan/ton, 552.50 yuan/ton, and 567.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at -382 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream profit of methanol: The profit of 西北MTO was -115.80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-20.88%); the profit of 华东MTO was -584.07 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-3.91%); the profit of acetic acid was 484.80 yuan/ton, up 31.40 yuan/ton (6.93%); the profit of MTBE was 257.52 yuan/ton, up 31.80 yuan/ton (14.09%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at -276.40 yuan/ton; the profit of 一曲歌 remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. d) Trading Strategy Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [1].