商品期货早班车-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metal market is in high - level oscillation. The non - recessionary interest rate cut expectation is favorable for the aluminum price, while the copper price is expected to rise as well. For gold, the short - term may see a callback, but the medium - term outlook is positive; silver is recommended to take profit. The alumina price may remain weakly oscillating. The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and it's advisable to wait and see. The tin price is expected to be strongly oscillating. In the black industry, steel supply and demand are seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation, iron ore supply and demand are marginally neutral - strong, and coking coal futures are over - valued. In the agricultural product market, the short - term performance of soybeans is internally and externally differentiated, corn prices are expected to decline, sugar prices are recommended to short, cotton prices are recommended to long, log prices are recommended to wait and see, palm oil is medium - term bullish, egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are recommended to short in the medium - and long - term, PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see, rubber is medium - term cautiously bullish, crude oil is recommended to short at high prices, soda ash is recommended to wait and see, and caustic soda is recommended to long [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold Market: The precious metal price is in high - level oscillation. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation persists. However, as the price hits a new high, there may be a short - term callback due to profit - taking, and it's still bullish in the medium - term. The domestic gold ETF funds flowed in more than 10 tons on Friday, and the COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1210 tons, while the SHFE gold inventory increased by 3 tons to 53 tons [1][3] - Silver Market: Silver follows gold. After the domestic price breaks through 10,000 yuan, it's recommended to take profit. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 6 tons to 1246 tons, the SGE silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 1240 tons last week, the COMEX silver inventory increased by 91 tons to 16402 tons, and the London silver inventory in August increased by 447 tons to 24643 tons [3] Basic Metals - Copper: On Friday, the copper price stood firm at 80,000 yuan. The US CPI data met expectations, the initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, and the ECB ended the interest rate cut cycle, leading to a continuous weakening of the US dollar. On the supply side, copper smelters enter the maintenance season, and the domestic output is expected to decline in September and October. It's recommended to buy on dips [2] - Aluminum: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.98% to 21,120 yuan/ton. The supply side maintains high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity, and the demand side shows continuous recovery. It's expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it's recommended to buy on dips [2] - Alumina: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.65% to 2933 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants is at a high level, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price may remain weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: On Friday, the main contract LC2511 closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2%. The SMM lithium carbonate price was reported at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to 1350 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also strong. It's expected that the price will oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and it's advisable to wait and see [4] - Tin: On Friday, the tin price oscillated strongly. The US CPI data met expectations, the initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, and the ECB ended the interest rate cut cycle, leading to a continuous weakening of the US dollar. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the domestic smelting start - up rate is at a low level. It's recommended to maintain a strongly oscillating view [4] Black Industry - Rebar: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3120 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The supply and demand of building materials are seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It's recommended to hold long positions, and the reference range for RB01 is 3080 - 3160 [5] - Iron Ore: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The supply and demand of iron ore are marginally neutral - strong. It's recommended to wait and see, and the reference range for I01 is 775 - 805 [5][6] - Coking Coal: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1161.5 yuan/ton, up from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water output increased, the steel mill's profit margin narrowed, and the coking coal inventory at steel mills and coking plants is at a low level. It's recommended to try long positions, and the reference range for 2605 JM01 is 1130 - 1190 [6] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose. The near - term US soybean area increased slightly, the yield per unit decreased slightly, and the output increased slightly. The far - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand side shows structural differentiation. It's recommended to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7] - Corn: The corn 2511 contract was weakly running, and the spot price of North China corn declined. The increase in imported grain auctions and the expected increase in new crops suppress the price. It's expected that the futures price will decline in an oscillating manner [7] - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 15.58 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5523 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.38%. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - Cotton: Last Friday, the US cotton futures price oscillated flat. The latest CFTC fund net long - position ratio decreased, and the USDA data in September adjusted the global cotton ending inventory downwards, which supports the cotton price. It's recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton [7][8] - Log: The log 09 contract closed at 798 yuan/cubic meter, with a weekly decline of 0.25%. The inventory of major ports decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It's recommended to wait and see [8] - Palm Oil: Last Friday, the Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side shows a decline in exports. It's recommended to pay attention to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies, and it's bullish in the medium - term [8] - Egg: The egg 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price rose. The double - festival stocking boosts demand, but the supply is sufficient. It's expected that the egg price will be strong in the short - term, and the futures price will rebound in an oscillating manner [8] - Pig: The pig 2511 contract was weakly running, and the spot price of pigs declined slightly. The supply is abundant, and the consumption is gradually recovering. It's expected that the pig price will oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see [8] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The domestic supply pressure is rising but slowing down, and the demand is improving. It's recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse spread in the medium - and long - term [9][10] - PVC: The V01 contract closed at 4870, unchanged. The PVC inventory reached a new high, and the supply increased. The demand is weak. It's recommended to clear short positions [10] - Rubber: On Friday, the rubber price dropped rapidly and then rebounded, with the RU2601 contract down 0.38% to 15820 yuan/ton. The raw material price decreased slightly, and the tire start - up rate increased significantly. It's recommended to be cautiously bullish in the medium - term [10] - Glass: The FG01 contract closed at 1181, up 0.4%. The glass production and sales are okay, and the price is at the bottom. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - PP: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is improving. It's recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse spread in the medium - and long - term [10] - Crude Oil: This week, the oil price continued to oscillate. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It's recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract around 490 yuan/barrel [10][11] - Styrene: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is still weak. It's recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit in the medium - and long - term [11] - Soda Ash: The SA01 contract closed at 1289, up 0.6%. The soda ash is oscillating at the bottom, and the downstream demand is improving. It's recommended to wait and see [11] - Caustic Soda: The SH01 contract closed at 2553, down 0.5%. The supply and demand of caustic soda are healthy, and the price is expected to rise in September. It's recommended to long [11]