转债周度专题：高评级、大盘转债往后怎么看？-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds have underperformed the market in the short term, they still have relative advantages in terms of risk - return characteristics and long - term allocation value. It is recommended to focus on low - price and low - premium varieties, targets with high potential call and conversion willingness of issuers, and convertible bonds in industries such as photovoltaics, power, and public utilities that benefit from the reversal at the bottom of the cycle and anti - involution policies [17]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of the contraction of convertible bond supply. In an environment of low long - term yields of pure bonds, the opportunity cost of convertible bonds is relatively low. However, the current overall valuation of convertible bonds is already at a relatively high level, so be vigilant against the callback risk [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. How to View High - Rated and Large - Cap Convertible Bonds in the Future - During the upward period of the convertible bond market from July 1 to September 12, 2025, AAA - rated and large - cap convertible bonds significantly underperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index. The gap may be due to market style switching suppressing the underlying stock elasticity, weakening of clause game value, and rising interest rates weakening the bond floor protection [10]. - In the market adjustment stage, the defensive value of high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds may be re - highlighted. After the valuation digestion in this round, the allocation cost - effectiveness may increase. With the recovery of market sentiment and the possible decline of interest rates in the future, the prices of high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds are expected to make up for the increase [12]. - The demand for bottom - position bond allocation increases, and high - rated and large - cap convertible bonds will benefit from the possible style switching in the equity market. However, they also face triple pressures, including the risk of rising interest rates, weakening of the issuer's willingness to downward - revise, and limited return space [13][17]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week (September 8 - 12), the A - share market generally rose. The risk - return ratio shows that the current A - shares still have good allocation cost - effectiveness. The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually recover [18]. - The convertible bond market rose this week, but the average daily trading volume decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the game space of downward - revision clauses, be vigilant against the call risk, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [19][30]. - Industries to focus on include hot themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "Central - owned Enterprises", and the military industry [19][20]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, the main equity market indices closed higher, with a more obvious preference for small - cap value stocks [24]. - Among the Shenwan industries, 26 industries' indices rose, and 5 industries' indices fell [28]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Overall Market Conversion Premium Rate Declined Slightly - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher, but the average daily trading volume decreased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.43%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.33%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.60% [30]. - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 13 industries closed higher, and 16 industries closed lower. Most individual bonds rose. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [34][42]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds - Classification Valuation Changes: This week, there was a valuation divergence in the convertible bond structure. The valuations of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, and 120 - 130 yuan decreased, while the valuations of AA + and AA - rated convertible bonds and large - cap convertible bonds increased [50]. - Market Index Performance: This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds fell, while convertible bonds of other ratings rose. Large - cap convertible bonds fell, while convertible bonds of other sizes rose [60][64]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - Three new convertible bonds were listed this week. The number of primary approvals was 14 from September 8 to 12, 2025. Jinchengxin, Fueneng Co., Ltd., and Yingliu Co., Ltd. were approved for registration by the CSRC [69]. 3.3.2. Downward - Revision & Call Clauses - As of September 12, 2025, 6 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, 5 convertible bonds announced no downward - revision, and Qifan Convertible Bond announced the downward - revision result. Nine convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger call, 2 convertible bonds announced no call, and 4 convertible bonds announced early call. There were 7 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 18 convertible bonds still in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period at the end of this week [74][76][79].