综合晨报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, with limited rebound space each time. For precious metals, after continuous rises, the volatility intensifies, and caution is needed when chasing high. For most commodities, market trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators [2][3] Summaries by Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices rebounded, with Brent's November contract up 1.84% and SC's October contract down 1.39%. The trading strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Last week, FU warehouse receipts decreased by 6800 tons in total, giving some support to FU. The LU - FU spread continued to shrink, from 710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 550 yuan/ton [22] - Asphalt: On Friday, asphalt warehouse receipts increased by 3800 tons. The slowdown in shipment volume in early September is expected to have a short - term impact. Factory and social inventories are both decreasing, and the strength of the bottom support of asphalt cracking needs to be observed [23] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by the rebound of import costs. It is expected to run strongly against oil in the short term, but the follow - up rise is limited under the pressure of high warehouse receipts on the futures market [24] Metals - Precious Metals: With the moderate rise of the US CPI and the appearance of weak employment signals, the market has fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Precious metals are running strongly, but caution is needed when chasing high after continuous rises [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices rose and then gave back some gains. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium of selling call options on the 2510 contract with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan [4] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum is running strongly, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and it is expected to test the resistance at the March high in the short term [5] - Zinc: The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the overseas supply is tight. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, driving up the LME zinc price and pulling up the domestic market. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - Lead: The supply pressure is weakening due to the co - existence of refinery overhauls and restarts. The short - term resistance is around 17,300 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The upstream price support has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to view it as a low - level shock [10] - Tin: Last Friday, the prices of tin both at home and abroad increased. It is not recommended to chase high, and it is advisable to take profits on previous long positions [11] Chemical Commodities - Urea: Last week, the urea futures contract continued to fall. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the weak market is expected to continue [25] - Methanol: The port inventory of methanol has been increasing significantly. The market is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [26] - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene futures price is oscillating around 6000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation in the third quarter may improve, but the current price is weak [27] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply pressure of polypropylene increases, and the demand recovery is slow. The demand for polyethylene fails to meet expectations in the peak season [29] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is oscillating narrowly, with high supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30] - PX & PTA: Affected by the decline in oil prices, the prices of PX and PTA are weakening. The demand for terminals is improving, and the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil may rise before the National Day [31] Agricultural Commodities - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral to bearish. The market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [37] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The USDA report is neutral to bearish. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [38] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian rapeseed harvest is in progress. The price of rapeseed futures may rise slightly [39] - Corn: It is expected to oscillate strongly before and after the new grain starts to be sold, and then the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom [41] - Cotton: The US cotton is oscillating strongly. The USDA September supply - demand report is neutral. The domestic cotton production in Xinjiang is likely to be a bumper harvest [44] - Sugar: The US sugar is oscillating. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45] - Apple: The futures price rebounds, but the supply side lacks positive drivers. The futures price is expected to continue to fall in the short term [46] Financial Products - Stock Index: The previous trading day saw a differentiated trend in the market. The M1 - M2 gap continued to repair, and market confidence was boosted. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [49] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures are rising in an oscillating manner. The reform and transformation of financing platforms are accelerating, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [50]