贵金属日评：美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points consecutively in September, October, and December. Combined with geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data Summary Gold - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 4.25 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 36,270 and a position of 206,336. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.72, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.88 [1]. - International Gold: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 3,680.70, with a trading volume of 147,566 and a position of 385,713. The London gold spot price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF held 974.80 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF held 457.86 tons [1]. Silver - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 304,080 and a position of - 78,720. The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 75.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 15.00 [1]. - International Silver: The closing price of the COMEX active futures contract was 41.32, with a trading volume of 66,072 and a position of 133,690. The London silver spot price was 42.26 dollars/ounce. The US iShare - Silver ETF held 15,230.57 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF held 6,129.64 tons [1]. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again due to the Democrats' demand to include the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act in the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly [1]. - The "Central Bank Super Week" is coming, and major central banks such as the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1]. Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 and the resistance level around 41 - 43. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 [1].