碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20250915

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On September 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market had more low - price transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. With the decline in lithium spodumene concentrate prices and stable lithium mica prices on the cost side, the supply of lithium carbonate increased last week from all raw material sources. In terms of downstream demand, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production in August was high, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Both smelters and others reduced inventory, while downstream inventory was tight. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, and the expected supply contraction is weakening. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Prices: On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 71180.00 yuan/ton, 71020.00 yuan/ton, 71360.00 yuan/ton, and 71360.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 160.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, and 60.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 410989.00 hands (- 15052), and the open interest was 309402.00 hands (- 14054) [1]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 38625.00 tons (+234) [1]. Spot Market - Lithium Minerals: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842.00 US dollars/ton (-2.00), and the prices of various types of lithium mica were flat [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72450.00 yuan/ton (-400), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70200.00 yuan/ton (-400). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) decreased, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was stable [1]. - Other Products: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and other products showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of ternary precursor 523 (multi - crystal/consumer type) increased by 1000.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) decreased by 95.00 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased [1]. - Demand: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production in August was high, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory The social inventory decreased, smelters and others reduced inventory, and downstream inventory was tight [1]. News On September 12, the commissioning ceremony of Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project in the Salar de Diablillos salt lake was held. The pre - project work such as the permit approval for the second - phase project is in progress, with a planned lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of the two - phase projects, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [1]. Investment Strategy It is recommended to short on rallies [1].