铝：突破上行，氧化铝：偏弱运行，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum is expected to break through and move upward, while the price of alumina will run weakly, and the price of cast aluminum alloy will follow that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The impact of Trump's "tariff war" is far less than the "theoretical level", mainly due to "exemptions". The actual effective tariff rate in the US is only about 9%-10%, much lower than the theoretical rate of about 18%, which means the negative impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate profits has been significantly over - estimated [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,120, up 425 compared to T - 5. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2701, up 99 compared to T - 5. The LME注销仓单占比 was 22.72%, with a significant increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2914, down 92 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest had certain changes, and the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was - 19 [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,645, up 365 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest also showed some changes, and the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was - 10 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to T - 5. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 4592.31, with a profit increase compared to T - 5. The import and export profits also had certain changes [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price was 3099, down 67 compared to T - 5. The alumina prices at different ports and the enterprise profit in Shanxi also showed downward trends [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 162, and the prices of related products such as Baotai ADC12 and Baotai ADC12 - A00 had certain changes [1]. 3.3 Other Information - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].