铝产业链日评：美联储降息预期和下游需求回暖支撑铝价-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of downstream demand support aluminum prices. The prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy are affected by different supply - demand and cost factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each [2]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Alumina - Price Trends: The national average price of alumina on September 12, 2025, was 3077.47 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to previous days. The closing price of alumina futures was 2914 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The volume, open interest, and inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Factors: Guinea's rainy season and bauxite production fluctuations led to rising prices of domestic and imported bauxite. China's alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory of alumina in Chinese alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants and the daily inventory of alumina in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although the operating capacity of alumina is high and the supply - demand is expected to be loose, the rising cost of bauxite limits the downward space of alumina prices [2]. - Trading Strategy: Gradually layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 2800 - 2900 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Price Trends: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum on September 12, 2025, was 21020 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 205 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume, open interest, and inventory [2]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Factors: On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is high due to good production profits, but the expected new replacement capacity is limited. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the daily inventory of LME electrolytic aluminum, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China decreased. On the demand side, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season led to an increase in the operating capacity of most downstream aluminum processing industries [2]. - Trading Strategy: Mainly layout long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 20400 - 20700 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2500 - 2600 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 for LME aluminum [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Price Trends: The average price of SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) on September 12, 2025, was 22100 yuan/ton, showing an increase. The closing price of the active contract of cast aluminum alloy futures was 20645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 170 yuan/ton. There were also changes in volume and open interest [2]. - Supply - Demand and Cost Factors: The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy IDC12 is 20380 yuan/ton, and the profit is positive, resulting in an increase in the production capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy. The social inventory of aluminum alloy, the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Ningbo, Wuxi, and Foshan, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. The domestic scrap aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tight, the production cost of recycled aluminum alloy is rising, but the profit is decreasing [2]. - Trading Strategy: Try to go long on aluminum alloy at low prices in the short - term or try to go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy at high prices. Pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20200 and the resistance level around 20500 - 21000 [2]. Overseas Aluminum Market - Price Trends: The closing price of LME 3 - month aluminum futures on September 12, 2025, was 10067.5 US dollars/ton, showing an increase. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread of LME aluminum futures was - 61.54, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32 [2]. - Ratio: The ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum prices was 7.8193 [2]