铁矿石：节前补库支撑价格，短期价格高位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to real - world factors. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic terminals, the market will trade more based on the fundamental changes of the black - series commodities. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing, and demand is falling from a high level under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is changing from tight - balance to balance, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will still support prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly maintain a high - level oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in Vale's shipments and non - mainstream shipments, while Australian shipments are relatively stable. The arrival volume is slightly lower than the same period last year. As the previous high - volume shipments continue to arrive at ports, the pressure on the supply side is expected to gradually emerge, and overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2] Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has recovered to the previous level. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years (only lower than 2021). After the high - level blast furnace profits have declined, they are approaching the break - even level, and the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale losses. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and their inventory levels are low. The short - term restocking demand may support iron ore prices [3] Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased simultaneously with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level has increased slightly but is lower than the same period last year. In the middle and late part of the month, as the pre - holiday restocking period begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Later, attention should be paid to whether the National Day restocking intensity exceeds expectations. This period, the port inventory has continued a slight increasing trend. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the out - port volume has significantly increased. At the same time, the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3] Price - Iron ore prices are oscillating within a certain range [3]