方正中期期货新能源产业链周度策略-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views Carbonate Lithium - The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium on Friday was 72,398 yuan/ton, down 406 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price was in a low - level sideways oscillation, and downstream material factories were actively placing orders and making deals. It's the peak demand season, and with the approaching National Day stock - building period, downstream procurement willingness is strong at relatively low prices [3]. - This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes saw output increases. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer from lithium salt enterprises to downstream. The apparent weekly demand reached a record high of 21,543 tons, and the available inventory days dropped to 45 days [4]. - Currently, the supply and demand of lithium salts are both strong. The short - term inventory reduction trend may accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize the opportunity for futures buy - hedging according to their risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [5]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak, and the export demand is good. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is limited under the dual increase of supply and demand, and the inventory remains at a high level. The price game continues due to strong downstream price - pressing sentiment [6]. - Given the strong expectations and weak reality, an interval trading approach is recommended. Consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support for the main contract is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by policy expectations and relevant news, with rapid trend changes and increased volatility. The supply is at a high level and still increasing. The spot price has been raised with policy expectations, but the downstream acceptance is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The upstream price increase and downstream price - pressing put pressure on the photovoltaic module sector. The upward price space in the future is expected to be limited. After the callback, consider going long on dips, or more preferably, sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips [7]. - The anti - low - price policy provides strong bottom support. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position, as the market is volatile. The support for the main contract is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium 11: Driven by news, it will run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream producers should seize the opportunity for sell - hedging at high prices, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on stocking up at low prices or buy - hedging. The support is 68,000 - 70,000 yuan, and the resistance is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - Industrial Silicon 11: Facing the confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, it will oscillate in an interval. Adopt an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the money put options on dips. The support is 8200 - 8300 yuan, and the resistance is 8900 - 9000 yuan [13]. - Polysilicon 11: Dominated by news, with a significant short - term speculative sentiment increase, it will oscillate at a high level. After the callback, consider going long on dips with a light position. The support is 51,000 - 52,000 yuan, and the resistance is 56,000 - 57,000 yuan [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 71,160 yuan | 0.23% | 410,989 | 309,402 | - 14,054 | 38,625 | | Industrial Silicon | 8745 yuan | 0.06% | 303,843 | 277,988 | - 9783 | 49,998 | | Polysilicon | 53,610 yuan | 1.08% | 356,808 | 134,898 | - 1428 | 7820 | [14] - The report also shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery new energy industry chain, industrial silicon, and polysilicon from different time points [15][16][17]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: This week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,963 tons, close to a record high. All lithium extraction processes' output increased. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1580 tons, with inventory transfer to downstream. The apparent demand reached a record high, and the available inventory days dropped [4]. - Downstream: The report provides data on the production capacity, operating rate, and output of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [23][25]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The supply has been increasing, and the operating rate has continued to rise. Last week, the weekly output of metallic silicon was about 93,000 tons, up 2920 tons. The report also shows the production capacity and inventory data of different regions [6][27][29]. - Downstream: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased after profit improvement, while that from the organic silicon and aluminum alloy sectors is relatively weak. The export demand is good. The report provides data on the output of organic silicon and the operating rate of aluminum alloy [6][32]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The supply is at a high level and still increasing. There are no signs of self - restricted production or production cuts from silicon material enterprises. The report shows the total inventory and monthly output data [7][34][38]. - Downstream: The downstream acceptance of the price increase is low, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The photovoltaic module sector faces cost and price - pressing pressures. The report provides data on the output of silicon wafers and photovoltaic modules [7][37].