方正中期期货有色金属周度策略-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year due to factors such as the under - expected US non - farm data and lower - than - expected PPI, which weakens the US dollar index and boosts metal prices. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the marginal demand for non - ferrous metals may improve to some extent, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [3][11]. - For copper, the price is expected to rise, and the price center may move up. For aluminum, it is recommended to be short - term long. For zinc, it can be considered to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages. For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions and consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy. For nickel and stainless steel, they can be slightly long at low prices [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro - logic: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising. The weak US employment data and the continuous slowdown of the ISM manufacturing data have raised concerns about the US economic growth slowdown and recession. However, the moderate inflation has strengthened the positive impact of interest rate cuts. The non - ferrous metals market is fluctuating and rising, and the leading varieties are driving the overall sector to turn warmer [10]. - Single - side Strategy for Each Metal - Copper: The demand in industries such as electricity, data centers, and new energy vehicles is strong. The domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline. The price is expected to rise, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3][12]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The supply and demand of the aluminum industry chain are both changing. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is shifting, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to be short - term long, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500. For alumina, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900 [5][13]. - Zinc: The zinc price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The downstream procurement is relatively light, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23000 and a lower support range of 21800 - 22000 [6]. - Lead: The supply of primary and secondary lead is decreasing, and the spot inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a short - term support range of 16500 - 16600 and an upper pressure range of 17200 - 17400. A wide - range option double - selling strategy can also be considered [6]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price rebounds due to the uncertainty of the Indonesian mining end. It is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support range of 118000 - 120000 yuan. Stainless steel is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [6]. - Arbitrage Strategy - Copper 2510 - 2511 Contracts: It is recommended to conduct a positive spread due to the strengthening of the domestic copper fundamentals and the expected interest rate cut [15]. - Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contracts: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread as the near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and lead [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - It provides a series of data charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, production capacity, and开工率 for each metal [21][23][32]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report includes various charts related to the arbitrage of non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts for each metal [74][76][78]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - It provides charts of historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various non - ferrous metals, and gives corresponding option strategies [93][94][96].