Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The latest news on raw sugar is bearish. Brazil has increased its estimates of sugarcane planting area and production, and the harvest is expected to exceed market expectations. Domestic sugar prices have stopped falling, with low inventory and high import processing costs providing some support. The future trend depends on the performance of raw sugar in the international market [4]. - Paper Pulp: The pulp industry chain has not changed significantly. The market is weak, and the supply and demand situation remains to be observed. Although the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated the supply pressure, it is necessary to pay attention to when producers will reduce shipments to the Chinese market. The price is expected to be range - bound at a low level [6]. - Double - Offset Paper: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable, and the market expects an improvement in demand during the peak season. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the profit and price increase may be limited [8][9]. - Cotton: The external market is under pressure, but there are also some supporting factors. The domestic market is in a game between tight old - season supply and loose new - season expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The futures price fluctuates. The market is mainly concerned about the difference between the expected and actual situation of the new season's production and quality. The price is expected to move within a range [12]. - Jujube: The futures price shows a weak and volatile trend. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the price has rebounded seasonally. The new - season production and quality will be determined in September [13]. Trading Strategies - Sugar: Due to the bearish news on raw sugar, it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main contract is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure level is 5580 - 5600 [5]. - Paper Pulp: Although the price may be supported in the short term, the upward driving force is not clear. It is recommended to be bearish after a rebound. The 2511 contract has a support level of 4900 - 4950 yuan and a pressure level of 5100 - 5200 yuan [7]. - Double - Offset Paper: The upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4400 - 4500 yuan. Consider reverse calendar spreads and long - pulp short - paper spreads, and try short positions near the pressure level [10]. - Cotton: It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea. The support range of the 01 contract is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14300 - 14400. For options, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [11]. - Apple: It is recommended to wait and see. The support range of the 2601 contract is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500. For options, it is recommended to sell a straddle combination strategy [12]. - Jujube: Aggressive investors can hold a reverse calendar spread (short 2601, long 2605) or hold a long position in the 2605 contract and buy a protective put option. It is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread option strategy. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 10500 - 10800 points, and the high - level reference range is 11200 - 11500 points [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2601: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8400 - 8500 [21]. - Jujube 2601: Take profit on long positions at high prices. The support range is 11000 - 11500, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [21]. - Sugar 2601: Wait and see. The support range is 5480 - 5500, and the pressure range is 5580 - 5600 [21]. - Paper Pulp 2511: Short within the range. The support range is 4900 - 4950, and the pressure range is 5150 - 5200 [21]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601: Short on rebounds. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4350 - 4400 [21]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt a range - trading idea. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [21]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8329, up 33 (0.40%) for the week [22]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11155, up 155 (1.41%) for the week [22]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5540, up 17 (0.31%) for the week [22]. - Paper Pulp 2511 closed at 4990, down 72 (-1.42%) for the week [22]. - Double - Offset Paper 2601 closed at 4224, with no change data provided [22]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13860, down 140 (-1.00%) for the week [22]. b. Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 0.20 yuan/jin [27]. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous period and 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [27]. - The spot price of sugar is 5890 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of paper pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27]. - The spot price of cotton is 15248 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and up 487 yuan/ton year - on - year [27]. Third Part: Sector Basis Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, paper pulp, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [37][40][42][44][53]. Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation - Relevant figures are provided for the inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton, but no specific analysis content is given [47][48][55] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple has 0 warehouse receipts, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the previous year [56]. - Jujube has 9188 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous period and an increase of 2906 compared to the previous year [56]. - Sugar has 11599 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 140 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1927 compared to the previous year [56]. - Paper pulp has 245040 warehouse receipts, an increase of 212 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 233942 compared to the previous year [56]. - Cotton has 5017 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 142 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2568 compared to the previous year [56]. Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Apple Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for apple option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios, but no specific analysis content is given [58] b. Sugar Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [59][60][63] c. Cotton Option Data - Relevant figures are provided for cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but no specific analysis content is given [67] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apple - Weather Conditions in Producing Areas: Relevant figures are provided for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [69] - Export Situation: Relevant figures are provided for apple export volume, but no specific analysis content is given [71] - Inventory Situation: Relevant figures are provided for China's weekly apple storage inventory and that in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis content is given [73] b. Jujube - Relevant figures are provided for the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis content is given [75] c. Sugar - Relevant figures are provided for national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import volume, and the spot - futures price difference, but no specific analysis content is given [77][79][82] d. Paper Pulp - Relevant figures are provided for domestic 4 - port paper pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis content is given [88][89] e. Double - Offset Paper - Relevant figures are provided for double - offset paper's capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific analysis content is given [91] f. Cotton - Relevant figures are provided for retail sales, inventory, and other data in the clothing industry in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific analysis content is given [93][94][100]
方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20250915
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-09-15 06:26