集运日报：班轮公司不断下调运价，中东冲突持续升级，盘面处于筑底过程，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - Amid continuous rate cuts by liner companies, escalating Middle - East conflicts, and a bottom - building process of the market, it is not advisable to increase positions. Instead, set stop - losses. Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 980.48 points, down 3.3% from the previous period. On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In China, the manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3] Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues without substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4] Contract Information - On September 12, the main contract 2510 closed at 1157.6, down 5.27%, with a trading volume of 27,400 lots and an open interest of 47,600 lots, a decrease of 1896 lots from the previous day. The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all these contracts is 100 lots [4][5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions. - Long - term: It is recommended to take profit when contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [5] Geopolitical News - On September 14, Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed said that Qatar will continue to mediate to end the Gaza conflict. Israel's attacks on Qatar will not stop its mediation efforts with Egypt and the US. He also said that Israel's attacks are state terrorism [6]