Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the performance of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in different economic cycles and their historical trends from 2005 to 2024. It also explores the relationship between the ratio of upstream and downstream indices and the A - share market, finding that the correlation reversed around 2015 due to economic structure transformation, policy regulation, and changes in the industry competition pattern. The current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead, which helps in stock index style selection and may create medium - to - long - term arbitrage opportunities [1][18][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Different Economic States and Industry Performance - Upstream Industry: The upstream industry includes raw materials, energy, and mining. It performs best in the economic recovery stage, with the order of performance being economic recovery > economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the recovery stage, it rebounds first due to increased demand for raw materials and energy, rising commodity prices, and positive market expectations. In the expansion stage, demand grows, but high raw material prices may lead to policy regulation. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and profits fluctuate. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [3]. - Midstream Industry: Comprising manufacturing and related sectors, it performs strongest in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic recovery > economic stagflation > economic recession. In the expansion stage, it benefits from increased manufacturing orders and high capacity utilization. In the stagflation stage, demand growth slows, and costs rise. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline significantly [5]. - Downstream Industry: Including consumer goods and services, it performs best in the economic expansion stage, with the order of performance being economic expansion > economic stagflation > economic recession > economic recovery. In the expansion stage, consumer demand is strong, and optional consumer goods perform better. In the stagflation stage, inflation affects consumption, but essential consumer goods are relatively stable. In the recession stage, demand and profits decline [6]. 3.2 Historical Review of Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream Trends - 2005 - 2007 (Upstream Explosion): The stock market rose overall, with the style being upstream > midstream > downstream. The economic fundamentals first expanded and then contracted. Upstream industries, represented by coal and non - ferrous metals, rose more than five times due to factors such as global commodity bull markets and China's industrialization. Midstream industries, like machinery, benefited from the real - estate market. Downstream industries were relatively weak due to lagging resident income growth [10]. - 2008 - 2009 (Full - Industry Chain Collapse and Policy Rescue): The stock market was weak, with the style being downstream (defensive) > midstream > upstream. Affected by the financial crisis, the upstream industry declined sharply, the midstream was supported by falling raw material prices and government investment, and the downstream rebounded first due to policy support [14]. - 2010 - 2015 (Midstream Upgrade and Downstream Consumption Rise): The stock market had a "V" - shaped trend, with the style being downstream > midstream > upstream. The economy was in a transformation stage. The upstream was affected by over - capacity, the midstream benefited from falling raw material prices and the development of high - end manufacturing, and the downstream reached its peak due to industry upgrades, policy support, and a loose financial environment [15]. - 2016 - 2020 (Supply - Side Reform and Consumption Differentiation): The stock market fluctuated and generally rose, with the style being upstream (2016 - 2017) > downstream > midstream. Supply - side reform led to a significant increase in upstream profits from 2016 - 2017. The midstream was affected by trade frictions and supply - side reform, and the downstream benefited from global liquidity and the "drinking and medicine - taking" market during the epidemic [15][16]. - 2021 - 2024 (Carbon Neutrality and Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration): The stock market declined, with the style being upstream (2021) > midstream (2022 - 2023) > downstream. The upstream was boosted by new energy demand in 2021. The midstream was affected by geopolitical conflicts and the epidemic but was supported by the development of photovoltaic and energy - storage industries. The downstream was affected by the epidemic and the real - estate downturn [17]. - Summary: Midstream performance is usually in the middle, and the upstream and downstream show obvious differentiation. Upstream indices rise first in the economic recovery, followed by the midstream, and finally the downstream. In the economic decline, the downstream has some defensive properties. Upstream is sensitive to supply - side policies, downstream to demand - side policies, and midstream is passively affected by events and policies [17]. 3.3 Industry Comparison and A - Share Market Review - The ratio of the upstream index to the downstream index is expected to be positively correlated with the A - share market. However, the correlation reversed around 2015. Before 2015, the upstream was more elastic, and the ratio was positively correlated with the A - share market. After 2015, the downstream became more elastic due to economic transformation, policy regulation, and other factors. Despite the change, the upward trend of the ratio still has indicative significance, and the current weak economic recovery may drive the upstream to take the lead [18][20][22].
股指专题研究：不同经济周期下，上中下游股指走势详解
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-15 06:38