Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weak, but the upward movement is still restricted. Although there are speculative factors such as anti - involution, the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in supply after the parade continue to limit the upward movement of the market. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying coking coal on dips [4]. - As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.56% to 1625.5, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.51% to 1144.5 [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking - Price: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The first - round reduction of spot prices has been implemented, and the second - round reduction has begun. The trucking freight has increased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi Jiexiu quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price dropped from 1380 yuan/ton to 1330 yuan/ton [7][10][18]. - Supply: Most of the previously shut - down or restricted coking plants have resumed production, and coke supply has increased. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of all independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78 percentage points, and the daily average coke output was 66.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.44 tons [27][29]. - Demand: Hot metal production has increased significantly, and the rigid demand for raw materials is still supported. However, after the parade, logistics has improved, steel mills' arrivals have increased, and some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Speculative sentiment is average, export profit has changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials is lower than the same period in previous years [35][39][41]. - Inventory: Inventories have increased across all sectors, and the total inventory has risen. As of September 12, the total coke inventory increased by 10.96 tons week - on - week to 906.24 tons [42][44]. - Profit: The profitability of coking enterprises has been compressed, and the coke futures profit has fluctuated. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [55][57]. - Valuation: The premium of coke 01 has expanded, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 11.3 to - 95.88 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28 to - 137 [59][61]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking - Price: The futures price first fell and then rose last week, and there are opportunities to buy on dips. The spot prices have shown mixed trends. For example, the CFR price of Peak Downs hard coking coal from Australia increased by 4.6 dollars/ton to 202.05 dollars/ton [64][67]. - Supply: The supply from production areas has increased, the output of coal washing plants has slightly increased, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Mongolian border has remained high, but the cumulative import of coking coal from January to July 2025 has decreased year - on - year. As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [70][75][78]. - Inventory: Inventories have decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory has declined. As of September 12, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 62.03 tons week - on - week to 2483.50 tons [79][81]. - Valuation: The coking coal 01 is basically at par, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 increased by 14 to - 13.5 week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 9 to - 81 [105][107].
煤焦周度报告20250915：基本面偏弱、预期偏强，双焦上行仍受限-20250915
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-15 06:37