长江期货养殖产业周报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - Pigs: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - Eggs: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - Corn: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - Weekly Market Review: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - Fundamental Data Review: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - Key Data Tracking: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - Strategy Suggestions: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - Weekly Market Review: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - Fundamental Data Review: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - Key Data Tracking: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - Strategy Suggestions: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - Weekly Market Review: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - Fundamental Data Review: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - Key Data Tracking: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - Strategy Suggestions: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].