长江证券碳酸锂周报：旺季需求支撑，价格延续震荡-20250915

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 250 tons to 21,000 tons, and August production increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mineral right transfer review, affecting supply. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three import countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume of carbonate lithium in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Demand side: The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. Sales were 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase [6]. - Price outlook: It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good. The cost center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium will be supported, but it will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Viewpoint (Weekly Viewpoint) - Supply situation: The production volume, mine shutdown, mineral right review, and import volume of lithium ore and carbonate lithium are as described above. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore for carbonate lithium production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. - Demand situation: The September production schedule increased, and the production, export, and sales data of power and other batteries in August are as mentioned. The new energy vehicle market in China is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - Inventory situation: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory increasing by 360 tons, market inventory decreasing by 2,663 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,994 tons [6]. - Strategy recommendation: It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Price data: It includes the historical prices of carbonate lithium (such as Shanghai - colored spot tax - included average price, average price of 99.2% industrial - grade carbonate lithium), lithium spodumene concentrate, and related battery materials like average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, average price of NCA - type ternary materials [9][18][21]. - Production data: It involves the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, the monthly production of power batteries, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in August 2024 (salt lake 21.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, lithium spodumene 43.87%), and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [5][10][12][25]. - Import data: It contains the import volume of lithium spodumene and the import volume of lithium ore from different countries in July 2025 [5][39]. - Inventory data: It consists of the weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, and the inventory of smelters and downstream [14][19][22].